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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western And 
Message-ID: <20220118055638.BBE541C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Tue, 18 Jan 2022 05:56:38 +0000
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Reply-To: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
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ABPW10 PGTW 180600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/180600Z-190600ZJAN2022//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 20.1S 163.5W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.1S 167.1W, APPROXIMATELY
402 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 180412Z SSMIS 91GHZ COLOR
COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A DEFINED, FULLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH TIGHTLY-WRAPPED SHALLOW BANDS. A
172120Z SCATTEROMETER IMAGE SHOWS A CLOSED CIRCULATION WITH 25-30KT
GRADIENT WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE AND 15-20 KT WINDS TO THE NORTH OF
THE LLCC. IN GENERAL, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE UNFAVORABLE. THE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WITH CONVERGENCE ALOFT, WHICH IS PRODUCING LARGE-SCALE
SUBSIDENCE, AND MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (30-40KTS).
ANALYSIS OF THE MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT REVEALS EXTENSIVE DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT DOMINATING THE MID-UPPER LEVELS. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (28-29C) REMAIN CONDUCIVE. GLOBAL MODELS ARE STILL IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE SYSTEM TRACKING WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS WITH LITTLE DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN


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