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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220118092936.7B4771C0087@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Tue, 18 Jan 2022 09:29:36 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 180929
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Jan 18 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0820 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from NW Colombia near 09N74W to 03N81W.
The ITCZ extends from 05N87W to 09.5N130W to beyond 07.5N140W. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 360
nm NE of line from 07N118W to 17N139W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Strong N to NE winds to near 30 kt, and seas of 7-9 ft prevail 
across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and extend downwind to near 
14.5N. A weak pressure gradient across the remainder of the area 
is supporting mainly light to gentle winds across the offshore 
waters from Baja California Norte to Puerto Angel. Seas are in 
the 1-3 ft range over the Gulf of California, and 5-7 ft over the
remainder of the open waters off Mexico. 

Fresh to strong winds will prevail over the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
through Tue evening before diminishing moderate to fresh through
Wed morning. Gale-force winds are possible over the Tehuantepec 
region once again late Fri. High pressure will build modestly 
across the Baja offshore waters Tue night through the remainder 
of the week to produce moderate winds across the Baja offshore 
waters. Moderate winds will also develop inside the Gulf of 
California Wed night and become moderate to fresh Thu. W-NW swell
will continue to move through the waters offshore of Baja 
California through Wed.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

A cold front has moved across the western Caribbean and reached
SE Nicaragua tonight. High pressure behind the front is
supporting strong NE to E gap winds across the Papagayo region
and extends to near 89W. Seas across that area have built to 6-8 
ft. N-NE winds over the Gulf of Panama have become fresh and
extend to near 05N, where seas are 4-6 ft. Light winds prevail 
north of a surface trough stretching across the Central American 
offshores with gentle winds south of it. Seas are 4-6 ft
elsewhere outside of the Gulf of Papagayo, mainly due to S to SW
swell.

Fresh to strong gap winds will prevail across the Papagayo 
region through most of the week, and extend across much of the
Nicaragua offshore waters. Northerly winds across the Gulf of 
Panama will pulse to fresh through Wed night. A surface trough 
will extend across the Central American offshores with light to 
gentle winds north of it and gentle winds south of it. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

Subsiding west to northwest swell continues across the waters
west of 90W, with seas in the 6-8 ft range. A broad surface 
trough extends from a 1016 mb surface low near 31.5N120W to 
22N122W. Light to gentle winds are found within 250 nm either 
side of the trough. High pressure NW of the trough is supporting 
gentle to moderate NE winds W of the trough to 18N. An energetic
N to S aligned upper level trough has moved E across 140W
overnight and is creating unstable conditions across SW portions
of the discussion area. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is seen in satellite imagery within 360 nm NE of a
line from 07N118W to 17N139W. A broad surface trough has begun to
develop in this area, N of the ITCZ to 17N and between 128W and
135W. Moderate to locally fresh E to NE tradewinds are occurring
across this zone.

The surface trough and weak low pressure across the NE waters 
will lift N and out of the area today, to briefly  maintain 
tranquil marine conditions. The new surface trough developing 
north of the ITCZ is expected to drift N-NE through late Wed, 
where a surface low is likely to develop in the vicinity of 
20N133W. This low is then expected to move N-NW through the end 
of the week. As this occurs, the pressure gradient between the 
low and high pressure to the N is expected to produce a zone of 
strong NE to E winds from 20N to 27N and building seas. There is 
good potential for winds to reach minimal gale force N of the low
by early Thu, with seas building 10 ft and higher.

$$
Stripling


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