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From: <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: RSMC La Reunion Tropical Cyclone Analysis
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Message-ID: <20220118102724.863EE1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Tue, 18 Jan 2022 10:27:24 +0000
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364 
AWIO20 FMEE 181025

TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN 
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN 

DATE: 2022/01/18 AT 1200 UTC

PART 1:

WARNING SUMMARY:


Nil.

PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:


The trans-equatorial monsoon flow is present over almost the entire width of the basin. This flow defines a weak Near Equatorial Trough (NET) configuration east of 65oE, centered at 5oS. The convergence with the trade winds takes place on the southern part of this NET defining a moderate to strong convective activity towards 10oS over the central part of the basin. The convective activity is also notable on a North-South axis around 13oS due to the wet flow generated between the Mascarene Islands and Madagascar by the low pressure area further south around 27S/52E.

Under the effect of a favorable wave activity, in particular the passage of a Kelvin wave, the basin should migrate to a configuration of monsoon trough (MT) more marked. Within this MT, one or two areas of vorticity could develop over the next few days.

A first low-pressure system should appear within this MT by Thursday, north of the Mascarene Islands. Under unfavorable environmental conditions, the circulation will take time to develop and it is rather on Saturday that a low-pressure system will take shape. Some scenarios of assembly models intensify this minimum at the level of the Malagasy northeast coast before a landing at a still low threshold. It is during its exit over the Mozambique Channel that the circulation could present a more significant risk of cyclogenesis.

In addition, the strengthening of the MT at the end of the week to the center of the basin and the crossing of a MJO and Equatorial Rossby wave could promote the emergence of a second area of vorticity located east of 70oE. Some scenarios suggest a slow development of this circulation, from Sunday. There is then a very low risk of formation of a tropical storm at the very end of the period.

The risk of formation of a tropical storm is low before Saturday and become moderate from Saturday off the northeast coast of Madagascar. It is very low over the east of the basin at the end of the period.

 
NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of the genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin and within the next five days:

Very low:       less than 10%              Moderate:        30% to 60%        Very high:      over 90%
Low:             10% to 30%                  High:               60% to 90%
                                                                                                                                         
The Southwestern Indian Ocean basin extends from the equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.


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