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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220119030848.4A88F1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Wed, 19 Jan 2022 03:08:48 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 190308
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Jan 19 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale warning Thu for Pacific waters near 25N135W: A vigorous mid
to upper level low is centered near 26N138W, with an mid to upper
trough reaching from the low to near 15N120W. Divergence aloft
associated with the mid to upper trough is supporting scattered
showers and thunderstorms from 09N to 18N between 125W and 131W,
and from 14N to 16N between 117W and 120W. Squalls and locally
rough seas are possible near the thunderstorms. The upper 
pattern is supporting the development of a surface trough roughly
along 130W between 15N and 20N. This will deepen into a surface 
low over the next couple of days, just as high pressure builds 
farther north. The tightening gradient between the low and high 
pressure will allow for strong to near- gale force winds from 22N
to 30N between 130W and 140W Wed into Thu, intensifying to gale-
force winds near 25N135W by late Thu with seas building to 14 
ft. The low pressure and associated gale force winds will move 
west of 140W Fri. Winds and seas will diminish from 15N to 30N 
west of 130W through Sat. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The ITCZ extends from 06N87W to 11N125W to 08N140W. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection is evident from 09N to 18N
between 125W and 131W, and from 14N to 16N between 117W and 
120W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Weak ridging north of 20N is supporting gentle to moderate winds
off Baja California and the Gulf of California, as noted in
recent ship observations and earlier scatterometer data. A small
area of fresh to strong gap wind may be ongoing near the coast in
the Gulf of Tehuantepec, but gentle to moderate winds prevail
elsewhere off southern Mexico. Seas are 4 to 6 ft seas in open
waters off Mexico. 

For the forecast, the small area of fresh to strong N winds will
continue to prevail over the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight then 
diminish. A Gulf of Mexico cold front will likely cause gale- 
force winds over the Tehuantepec region Fri night through Sun 
morning. High pressure will build modestly west of the Baja 
peninsula Wed through the weekend and should produce fresh to 
strong NW winds across the Gulf of California starting on Thu and
continuing through Sun night. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Over the western Caribbean, a shear line extends from the Jamaica
to Costa Rica. High pressure behind the shear line is supporting
strong NE to E gap winds across the Papagayo region extending to
near 90W. Seas across that area have built to 8-9 ft. Fresh N 
winds are present over the Gulf of Panama with seas 5-7 ft. 
Elsewhere winds are moderate or weaker and seas are 3-5 ft.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will prevail
across the Papagayo region through Sun night. Fresh to strong N 
winds will continue through Wed night over the Gulf of Panama. 
Elsewhere, winds should remain tranquil for the next several 
days. Large NW to N swell from the Gulf of Tehuantepec should 
affect the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters Sat and Sun.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

Please see Special Features for details about the Pacific gale
warning.

A recent scatterometer satellite pass shows a large area of fresh
NE winds from 16N to 22N between 130W and 135W. A concurrent
altimeter satellite pass shows seas approaching 8 ft in this
area. These winds and seas are between a surface trough along
roughly 130W and higher pressure building north of the area.
Gentle to moderate easterly winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted
are elsewhere across the region.

For the forecast, low pressure will develop overnight near
15N135W. While the low is not likely to be frontal, the low may 
not develop enough organized deep convection and/or a well- 
defined low in order to be considered a subtropical cyclone. By 
Fri night, the low will move west 140W and weaken substantially.
Seas should peak around 14 ft from Thu night to Fri from 15N to 30N
between 130W to 140W.

$$
Christensen


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