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Subject: Pacific SE: Tropical Disturbance Summary
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676 
WWPS21 NFFN 190600
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 190859 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD05F CENTER [1001HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 19.3S
160.7W AT 190600UTC. TD05F SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON
HIMAWARI-8 IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. SST AROUND 28 DEGREES CELCIUS.

AN ACTIVE CONVERGENCE ZONE WITH ASSOCIATED CLOUD BANDS WRAPS ONTO THE
SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH THROUGH EAST TO THE SOUTHEAST SECTOR WITH AN
EMBEDDED LLCC. 
THE SUPPOSED LLCC IS IN A MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER DIVERGENT AREA
WITH GOOD OUTFLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE WIND SHEAR.
 
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND SLOW MOVING AS IT IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 48 HRS IS  LOW.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------


 NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.


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