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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220119191647.0F1161C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Wed, 19 Jan 2022 19:16:46 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 191916
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Jan 19 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2040 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale warning for Pacific waters: A vigorous mid to upper level 
low is centered near 26N139W, with an mid to upper trough 
reaching from the low to near 10N125W. Divergence aloft 
associated with the mid to upper trough is supporting scattered 
to numerous showers and thunderstorms from 10N to 26N between 
105W and 124W, and from 17N to 28N between 124W and 135W. Squalls
and locally rough seas are possible near the thunderstorms. The 
upper pattern is supporting a 1011 mb surface low pressure area 
near 17N136W. The low will deepen over the next couple of days, 
as high pressure builds farther north. The tightening gradient 
between the low and high pressure will allow for strong to near- 
gale force winds from 22N to 30N between 130W and 140W Wed into 
early Fri, intensifying to gale- force winds near 25N135W by late
Thu with seas building to 16 ft. The low pressure and associated
gale force winds will move west of 140W Fri. Winds and seas will
diminish from 15N to 30N west of 130W through Sat. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 07N77W to 05N80W to 05N88W. The 
ITCZ extends from 05N88W to 07N109W to 12N128W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 03N to 07N between 78W and 
81W. Scattered to numerous moderate and isolated strong 
convection is observed from 10N to 26N between 105W and 124W, 
and from 17N to 28N between 124W and 135W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

A ridge of high pressure extends west of the Baja California
peninsula, with a weak pressure gradient across the area. Gentle
to moderate winds prevail west of the Baja California peninsula,
and over the southern portion of the Gulf of California. Moderate
to fresh gap winds prevail over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Light to
gentle winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range 
over the open waters off Mexico, with 1-3 ft seas over the Gulf 
of California. 

For the forecast, a cold front moving through the western Gulf 
of Mexico later this week will bring gale- force winds over the 
Tehuantepec region Fri night through Sun. High pressure will 
build west of the Baja peninsula through the weekend, producing 
fresh to strong NW winds across the Gulf of California starting 
on Thu and continuing through Sun night. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

High pressure north of the area is supporting strong to near-
gale NE to E gap winds across the Papagayo region extending to 
near 90W. Seas across that area are in the 8 to 9 ft range. 
Fresh to strong N winds are present over the Gulf of Panama with 
seas 5 to 7 ft. Elsewhere winds are moderate or weaker with seas 
in the 3 to 5 ft range.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will prevail
across the Papagayo region through Sun night. Fresh to strong N
winds will continue through tonight over the Gulf of Panama.
Elsewhere, winds should remain tranquil for the next several
days. Large NW to N swell from the Gulf of Tehuantepec will 
impact the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters Sat and 
Sun.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

Please see Special Features for details about the Pacific gale
warning.

A large area of fresh to strong NE to E winds are within 300 nm 
north of a 1011 mb low pressure area centered near 17N136W, with
seas of 8-10 ft. Gentle to moderate easterly winds and 5 to 7 ft
seas are noted are elsewhere across the region.

For the forecast, low pressure will deepen over the next couple
of days as it moves westward as high pressure builds north of 
the area. This pattern will support a large area of fresh to 
strong E winds through Fri, reaching minimal gale force within 
300 nm north of the low as it moves to a position near 24N137W by
early Thu afternoon. By early Fri, the low will move west 140W 
and weaken substantially. Seas should peak around 16 ft Thu and 
Thu night from 15N to 30N between 130W to 140W.

$$
AL


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