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Subject: Pacific SE: Tropical Disturbance Summary
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902 
WWPS21 NFFN 192100
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 192306 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD05F CENTER [1001HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 20.2S
159.3W AT 192100UTC. TD05F SLOW MOVING. POSITION FAIR BASED ON
HIMAWARI-8 IR & VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. SST AROUND 28 DEGREES
CELCIUS.

AN ACTIVE CONVERGENCE ZONE WITH ASSOCIATED CLOUD BANDS WRAPS ONTO THE
SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH THROUGH EAST TO THE SOUTHEAST SECTOR WITH AN
EMBEDDED LLCC. 
THE SUPPOSED LLCC IS IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEAR WITH STRONG UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND GOOD OUT FLOW DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM.
 
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTH WITH SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 HRS IS LOW WITH MODERATE THEREAFTER.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------


 NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.

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