Received-SPF: pass (google.com: domain of wx-tropl-owner@lists.illinois.edu designates 148.163.139.28 as permitted sender) client-ip=148.163.139.28;
From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220120040100.D31201C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Thu, 20 Jan 2022 04:01:00 +0000
MIME-Version: 1.0
Reply-To: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Errors-to: wx-tropl-owner@lists.illinois.edu
Precedence: list
Precedence: bulk
Content-type: multipart/mixed; boundary="----------=_1642651264-90867-165"

This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

------------=_1642651264-90867-165
Content-Type: text/plain

AXPZ20 KNHC 200400
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Jan 20 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale warning for Pacific waters: A vigorous mid to upper level 
low is centered near 25N140W, with an mid to upper trough 
reaching from the low to near 15N110W. Divergence aloft 
associated with the mid to upper trough is supporting a few 
clusters of showers and thunderstorms from 17N to 20N between
119W and 121W, and from 13N to 20N between 128W and 132W. The 
upper pattern is supporting a complex low with a mean center near
21N133W, with an estimated pressure around 1009 mb. The 
tightening gradient between the low and high pressure building 
north of area will allow for strong to near- gale force winds 
from 22N to 30N between 130W and 140W into early Fri, 
intensifying to gale- force winds near 25N135W by late Thu with 
seas building to 16 ft. The low pressure and associated gale 
force winds will move west of 140W Fri. Winds and seas will 
diminish from 15N to 30N west of 130W through Sat.

Gulf of Tehuantepec gale warning: A cold front moving through the western Gulf of
Mexico later this week will bring gale- force winds over the
Tehuantepec region Fri night through into Sun. Winds and seas
will diminish over the Gulf of Tehuantepec early next week. Seas
will reach as high as 11 ft in the Gulf of Tehuantepec by early
Sat. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 06N77W to 07N90W. The ITCZ extends
from 05N90W to 06N110W, and from 07N115W to 09N130W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 09N to 12N between 110W and 
113W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Please see the Special Features section for details about the
gale warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

High pressure west of the Baja California is building, supporting
moderate to occasionally fresh winds off Baja California and Gulf
of California, as reported in recent ship observations. Gentle 
to moderate winds persist elsewhere off Mexico. Seas are 4 to 6 
ft in open waters.

For the forecast, high pressure will build west of the Baja 
peninsula through the weekend, producing fresh to strong NW winds
across the Gulf of California Thu into Fri. A cold front will 
move into the northern Gulf of California and the waters off Baja
California Norte Sat, then stall and dissipate over Baja 
California Sur and the southern Gulf of California Sun into Mon.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

High pressure north of the area is supporting strong to near-
gale NE to E gap winds across the Papagayo region extending to 
near 90W. Seas across that area are in the 8 to 9 ft range. 
Fresh to strong N winds are present over the Gulf of Panama with 
seas 5 to 7 ft. Elsewhere winds are moderate or weaker with seas 
in the 3 to 5 ft range.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will prevail
across the Papagayo region through early next week. Fresh to 
strong N winds will continue through tonight over the Gulf of 
Panama. Elsewhere, winds should remain tranquil for the next 
several days. Large NW to N swell from the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
will impact the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters Sat and
Sun.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

Please see Special Features for details about the Pacific gale
warning.

A large area of fresh to strong NE to E winds are within 300 nm 
north of a 1009 mb complex low pressure area centered near 
21N133W, with seas of 8-10 ft. Gentle to moderate easterly winds
and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted are elsewhere across the region.

For the forecast, low pressure will deepen over the next couple
of days as it moves westward as high pressure builds north of 
the area. This pattern will support a large area of fresh to 
strong E winds through Fri, reaching minimal gale force within 
300 nm north of the low as it moves to a position near 24N137W by
early Thu afternoon. By early Fri, the low will move west 140W 
and weaken substantially. Seas should peak around 16 ft Thu and 
Thu night from 15N to 30N between 130W to 140W.

$$
Christensen


------------=_1642651264-90867-165
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Disposition: inline
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

= = = == = =
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-TROPL.
------------=_1642651264-90867-165--