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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian Ocean 
Message-ID: <20220120074319.86F561C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Thu, 20 Jan 2022 07:43:19 +0000
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ABIO10 PGTW 200730
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/200730Z-201800ZJAN2022//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
14.1S 59.0E, APPROXIMATELY 378 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS BROAD
FLARING CONVECTION OVERHEAD OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A
200455Z ASCAT B PASS SHOWS WINDS OF UP TO 25 KNOTS IN THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO
MODERATE (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93S
WILL TRACK WESTWARD INTO THE NORTH EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR AS IT
INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) AS A LOW.//
NNNN


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