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Subject: Pacific SE: Tropical Disturbance Summary
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863 
WWPS21 NFFN 200600
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 200854 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD05F CENTER [1000HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 21.7S
159.8W AT 200600UTC. TD05F SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON
HIMAWARI-8 IR & VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. SST AROUND 28 DEGREES
CELCIUS.

AN ACTIVE CONVERGENCE ZONE WITH ASSOCIATED CLOUD BANDS WRAPS ONTO THE
SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH THROUGH EAST TO THE SOUTHEAST SECTOR WITH AN
EMBEDDED LLCC. 
THE SUPPOSED LLCC IS IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEAR AND STRONG UPPER
DIVERGENCE WITH GOOD OUT FLOW DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM.
 
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTH WITH SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 HRS IS LOW WITH MODERATE POTENTIAL THEREAFTER.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------


 NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.


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