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[148.163.139.28]) by mx.google.com with ESMTPS id r81si3623239yba.817.2022.01.20.10.55.21 for (version=TLS1_2 cipher=ECDHE-RSA-AES128-GCM-SHA256 bits=128/128); Thu, 20 Jan 2022 10:55:21 -0800 (PST) Received-SPF: pass (google.com: domain of wx-tropl-owner@lists.illinois.edu designates 148.163.139.28 as permitted sender) client-ip=148.163.139.28; Authentication-Results: mx.google.com; spf=pass (google.com: domain of wx-tropl-owner@lists.illinois.edu designates 148.163.139.28 as permitted sender) smtp.mailfrom=wx-tropl-owner@lists.illinois.edu Received: from pps.filterd (m0166258.ppops.net [127.0.0.1]) by mx0b-00007101.pphosted.com (8.16.1.2/8.16.1.2) with ESMTP id 20KIHkKk014133 for ; Thu, 20 Jan 2022 18:55:21 GMT Received: from lists.illinois.edu (lists.illinois.edu [192.17.172.63]) by mx0b-00007101.pphosted.com (PPS) with ESMTP id 3dpqbe1cqt-11 for ; Thu, 20 Jan 2022 18:55:21 +0000 Received: by lists.illinois.edu (Postfix, from userid 50033) id EEACCE418E; Thu, 20 Jan 2022 12:55:20 -0600 (CST) Delivered-To: wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu Received: from mx0a-00007101.pphosted.com (mx0a-00007101.pphosted.com [148.163.135.28]) by lists.illinois.edu (Postfix) with ESMTPS id 2ADF5E415F for ; Thu, 20 Jan 2022 12:55:10 -0600 (CST) Received: from pps.filterd (m0272704.ppops.net [127.0.0.1]) by mx0b-00007101.pphosted.com (8.16.1.2/8.16.1.2) with ESMTP id 20KIY24A024155 for ; Thu, 20 Jan 2022 18:55:09 GMT Received: from fortimail.cod.edu (fortimail.cod.edu [192.203.136.203]) by mx0b-00007101.pphosted.com (PPS) with ESMTPS id 3dqac3t4sr-1 (version=TLSv1.2 cipher=ECDHE-RSA-AES256-GCM-SHA384 bits=256 verify=NOT) for ; Thu, 20 Jan 2022 18:55:08 +0000 Received: from mail.cod.edu ([10.11.1.123]) by fortimail.cod.edu with ESMTP id 20KIt7gV000483-20KIt7gY000483 (version=TLSv1.2 cipher=ECDHE-RSA-AES256-GCM-SHA384 bits=256 verify=OK) for ; Thu, 20 Jan 2022 12:55:07 -0600 Received: from MAIL19.cdnet-ad.ad.cod.edu (10.11.1.123) by MAIL19.cdnet-ad.ad.cod.edu (10.11.1.123) with Microsoft SMTP Server (version=TLS1_2, cipher=TLS_ECDHE_RSA_WITH_AES_256_GCM_SHA384) id 15.2.986.14; Thu, 20 Jan 2022 12:55:07 -0600 Received: from weather.cod.edu (10.11.2.79) by MAIL.cod.edu (10.11.1.123) with Microsoft SMTP Server id 15.2.986.14 via Frontend Transport; Thu, 20 Jan 2022 12:55:07 -0600 Received: by weather.cod.edu (Postfix, from userid 1001) id 4E0571C0EEF; Thu, 20 Jan 2022 18:55:07 +0000 (UTC) From: COD Weather Processor To: Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian Message-ID: <20220120185507.4E0571C0EEF@weather.cod.edu> Date: Thu, 20 Jan 2022 18:55:07 +0000 MIME-Version: 1.0 X-FE-Policy-ID: 7:6:2:SYSTEM X-Spam-Details: rule=cautious_plus_nq_notspam policy=cautious_plus_nq score=0 impostorscore=0 adultscore=0 suspectscore=0 mlxlogscore=455 spamscore=0 mlxscore=0 lowpriorityscore=0 malwarescore=0 clxscore=345 phishscore=0 bulkscore=0 priorityscore=240 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx scancount=1 engine=8.12.0-2110150000 definitions=main-2201200094 X-Spam-Score: 0 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather.cod.edu X-Spam-Bar: X-Sympa-Topic: Indian-N Reply-To: COD Weather Processor X-Loop: wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu X-Sequence: 279717 Errors-to: wx-tropl-owner@lists.illinois.edu Precedence: list Precedence: bulk X-no-archive: yes List-Id: List-Help: List-Owner: List-Post: List-Subscribe: List-Unsubscribe: Content-type: multipart/mixed; boundary="----------=_1642704911-90867-454" X-Proofpoint-ORIG-GUID: 8twfUciopto4GUZFQl32WAcB4PA2ZLWV X-Proofpoint-GUID: 8twfUciopto4GUZFQl32WAcB4PA2ZLWV X-Spam-Details: rule=cautious_plus_nq_notspam policy=cautious_plus_nq score=0 suspectscore=0 spamscore=0 mlxlogscore=826 clxscore=1015 lowpriorityscore=1 priorityscore=1501 malwarescore=0 phishscore=0 adultscore=0 bulkscore=1 mlxscore=0 impostorscore=0 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx scancount=1 engine=8.12.0-2110150000 definitions=main-2201200094 X-Spam-Score: 0 X-Spam-OrigSender: wx-tropl-owner@lists.illinois.edu X-Spam-Bar: This is a multi-part message in MIME format... ------------=_1642704911-90867-454 Content-Type: text/plain ABIO10 PGTW 201800 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN/201800Z-211800ZJAN2022// RMKS/ 1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.1S 59.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.5S 58.6E, APPROXIMATELY 688 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH FORMATIVE BANDING FEEDING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) OFFSET FROM THE MAIN CONVECTION THAT IS SHEARED EQUATORWARD. A RECENT ASCAT PASS INDICATES THE LLC IS ELONGATED WITH ELEVATED WINDS UP TO 25KTS CONCENTRATED TO THE NORTHERN QUADRANT UNDER THE MAIN CONVECTION. THE REMAINDER OF THE LLC IS RIMMED WITH 05-10KT WIND BARBS, CORROBORATED BY A 191421Z SMAP PASS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY STRONG WESTWARD AND EQUTORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, OFFSET BY MODERATE TO STRONG (20-30KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93S WILL TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR AS IT INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT 24-60 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.// NNNN ------------=_1642704911-90867-454 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" Content-Disposition: inline Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT = = = == = = To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-TROPL. ------------=_1642704911-90867-454--