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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220120220612.54D191C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Thu, 20 Jan 2022 22:06:12 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 202206
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Jan 20 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2150 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale warning for Pacific waters: A well-defined area of low 
pressure producing gale-force winds is located more than 870 nmi 
east-northeast of Hilo, Hawaii or near 22N136W. Shower and 
thunderstorm activity continues near the center along with seas
of 8 to 16 ft. While environmental conditions appear only 
marginally favorable for additional development, if this activity
persists, it could result in the formation of a short-lived 
subtropical or tropical cyclone over the next day or so. By 
Friday, environmental conditions are expected to become 
unfavorable for additional development. There is a medium chance
for this system to become a tropical/subtropical cyclone within
the next 48 hours. Gale conditions are forecast to continue in
the northern semicircle of the low through Fri morning when the
low is expected to move just west of 140W. However, fresh to
strong winds and seas will gradually diminish from 15N to 30N 
west of 130W through Sat.

Gulf of Tehuantepec gale warning: A cold front moving through the 
western Gulf of Mexico today through Fri will bring gale-force 
winds over the Tehuantepec region Fri morning through Sun. Seas 
will reach as high as 12 ft in the Gulf of Tehuantepec by early 
Sat. Winds and seas will diminish over the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
early next week.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The ITCZ extends from 05N94W to 07N127W to beyond 09N140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 08N between 
111W and 118W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Please see the Special Features section for details about the
gale warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

High pressure west of the Baja California is building, supporting
moderate to occasionally fresh winds off Baja California and Gulf
of California. Light to gentle variable winds is elsewhere off 
Mexico with seas of 3 to 5 ft as indicated by recent altimeter
data.

For the forecast, high pressure building west of the Baja 
peninsula will support NW fresh to locally strong winds across 
the Gulf of California tonight. A cold front will move into the 
northern Gulf of California and the waters off Baja California 
Norte Sat, then stall and dissipate over Baja California Sur and 
the southern Gulf of California Sun into Mon.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

High pressure north of the area is supporting fresh to strong NE
to E gap winds across the Papagayo region extending to near 92W.
Seas across that area are in the 5 to 6 ft range. Moderate to 
locally fresh northerly winds are in the Gulf of Panama region 
with seas to 6 ft. Elsewhere winds are moderate or weaker with 
seas in the 3 to 5 ft range.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will prevail
across the Papagayo region through the middle of next week. 
Elsewhere, winds should remain tranquil for the next several 
days. Large NW to N swell from the Gulf of Tehuantepec will 
impact the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters Sat night 
through Sun night. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

Please see Special Features for details about the Pacific gale
warning.

A large area of fresh to near gale force NE to E winds are N of
22N and W of 125W associated with a 1008 mb complex low pressure
area centered near 22N136W, with seas of 8-16 ft. Gentle to 
moderate easterly winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are elsewhere across 
the region.

For the forecast, high pressure building north of the 1008 mb low
pressure will support a large area of fresh to strong E winds 
through Fri. By Fri morning, the low will move west 140W and 
weaken substantially. Seas should peak around 16 ft through 
tonight from 15N to 30N between 130W to 140W.

$$
Ramos


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