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[148.163.139.28]) by mx.google.com with ESMTPS id z65si4830026yba.223.2022.01.20.17.58.26 for (version=TLS1_2 cipher=ECDHE-RSA-AES128-GCM-SHA256 bits=128/128); Thu, 20 Jan 2022 17:58:26 -0800 (PST) Received-SPF: pass (google.com: domain of wx-tropl-owner@lists.illinois.edu designates 148.163.139.28 as permitted sender) client-ip=148.163.139.28; Authentication-Results: mx.google.com; spf=pass (google.com: domain of wx-tropl-owner@lists.illinois.edu designates 148.163.139.28 as permitted sender) smtp.mailfrom=wx-tropl-owner@lists.illinois.edu Received: from pps.filterd (m0166259.ppops.net [127.0.0.1]) by mx0b-00007101.pphosted.com (8.16.1.2/8.16.1.2) with ESMTP id 20L01VjG027931 for ; Fri, 21 Jan 2022 01:58:25 GMT Received: from lists.illinois.edu (lists.illinois.edu [192.17.172.63]) by mx0b-00007101.pphosted.com (PPS) with ESMTP id 3dqhx2rpaf-7 for ; Fri, 21 Jan 2022 01:58:25 +0000 Received: by lists.illinois.edu (Postfix, from userid 50033) id 63E71E2C27; Thu, 20 Jan 2022 19:58:25 -0600 (CST) Delivered-To: wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu Received: from mx0b-00007101.pphosted.com (mx0b-00007101.pphosted.com [148.163.139.28]) by lists.illinois.edu (Postfix) with ESMTPS id B2C52E254A for ; Thu, 20 Jan 2022 19:58:16 -0600 (CST) Received: from pps.filterd (m0166260.ppops.net [127.0.0.1]) by mx0b-00007101.pphosted.com (8.16.1.2/8.16.1.2) with ESMTP id 20L1VuZL006680 for ; Fri, 21 Jan 2022 01:58:16 GMT Received: from fortimail.cod.edu (fortimail.cod.edu [192.203.136.203]) by mx0b-00007101.pphosted.com (PPS) with ESMTPS id 3dqhx4rpgk-1 (version=TLSv1.2 cipher=ECDHE-RSA-AES256-GCM-SHA384 bits=256 verify=NOT) for ; Fri, 21 Jan 2022 01:58:16 +0000 Received: from mail.cod.edu ([10.11.1.123]) by fortimail.cod.edu with ESMTP id 20L1wF06024610-20L1wF08024610 (version=TLSv1.2 cipher=ECDHE-RSA-AES256-GCM-SHA384 bits=256 verify=OK) for ; Thu, 20 Jan 2022 19:58:15 -0600 Received: from MAIL19.cdnet-ad.ad.cod.edu (10.11.1.123) by MAIL19.cdnet-ad.ad.cod.edu (10.11.1.123) with Microsoft SMTP Server (version=TLS1_2, cipher=TLS_ECDHE_RSA_WITH_AES_256_GCM_SHA384) id 15.2.986.14; Thu, 20 Jan 2022 19:58:14 -0600 Received: from weather.cod.edu (10.11.2.79) by MAIL.cod.edu (10.11.1.123) with Microsoft SMTP Server id 15.2.986.14 via Frontend Transport; Thu, 20 Jan 2022 19:58:14 -0600 Received: by weather.cod.edu (Postfix, from userid 1001) id DFFBF1C0EEE; Fri, 21 Jan 2022 01:58:14 +0000 (UTC) From: COD Weather Processor To: Subject: Indian-S: Subj/tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (invest 93w)// Message-ID: <20220121015814.DFFBF1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu> Date: Fri, 21 Jan 2022 01:58:14 +0000 MIME-Version: 1.0 X-FE-Policy-ID: 7:6:2:SYSTEM X-Spam-Details: rule=cautious_plus_nq_notspam policy=cautious_plus_nq score=0 lowpriorityscore=0 phishscore=0 adultscore=0 priorityscore=198 spamscore=0 suspectscore=0 mlxlogscore=378 clxscore=319 mlxscore=0 impostorscore=0 malwarescore=0 bulkscore=0 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx scancount=1 engine=8.12.0-2201110000 definitions=main-2201210011 X-Spam-Score: 0 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather.cod.edu X-Spam-Bar: X-Sympa-Topic: Indian-S Reply-To: COD Weather Processor X-Loop: wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu X-Sequence: 279728 Errors-to: wx-tropl-owner@lists.illinois.edu Precedence: list Precedence: bulk X-no-archive: yes List-Id: List-Help: List-Owner: List-Post: List-Subscribe: List-Unsubscribe: Content-type: multipart/mixed; boundary="----------=_1642730297-90867-588" X-Proofpoint-GUID: bu2bzUTaMQEAxZqBfcQ1fJbqmWIdpwx5 X-Proofpoint-ORIG-GUID: bu2bzUTaMQEAxZqBfcQ1fJbqmWIdpwx5 X-Spam-Details: rule=cautious_plus_nq_notspam policy=cautious_plus_nq score=0 mlxlogscore=772 adultscore=0 spamscore=0 mlxscore=0 bulkscore=1 clxscore=1015 suspectscore=0 impostorscore=0 phishscore=0 priorityscore=1501 lowpriorityscore=1 malwarescore=0 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx scancount=1 engine=8.12.0-2201110000 definitions=main-2201210011 X-Spam-Score: 0 X-Spam-OrigSender: wx-tropl-owner@lists.illinois.edu X-Spam-Bar: This is a multi-part message in MIME format... ------------=_1642730297-90867-588 Content-Type: text/plain WTXS21 PGTW 210200 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93W)// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.4S 57.7E TO 17.4S 52.1E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 210100Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.9S 57.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.5S 58.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.9S 57.0E, APPROXIMATELY 565 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH FORMATIVE BANDING IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN QUADRANTS FEEDING INTO A FULLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 201819Z ASCAT METOP- C PASS INDICATED THE LLC IS CONSOLIDATED AND WELL DEFINED WITH ELEVATED WINDS UP TO 30KTS CONCENTRATED TO THE NORTH AND WESTERN QUADRANTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND POLEWARD AND WESTWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT 29-30C ARE ALSO FAVORABLE. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 220200Z. // NNNN ------------=_1642730297-90867-588 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" Content-Disposition: inline Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT = = = == = = To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-TROPL. ------------=_1642730297-90867-588--