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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian 
Message-ID: <20220121024037.9AB411C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Fri, 21 Jan 2022 02:40:37 +0000
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ABIO10 PGTW 210230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN REISSUED/210230Z-211800ZJAN2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HAROR HI/210200ZJAN2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.5S 58.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.9S 57.0E, APPROXIMATELY 565
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH
FORMATIVE BANDING IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN QUADRANTS FEEDING INTO
A FULLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 201819Z ASCAT METOP-
C PASS INDICATED THE LLC IS CONSOLIDATED AND WELL DEFINED WITH
ELEVATED WINDS UP TO 30KTS CONCENTRATED TO THE NORTH AND WESTERN
QUADRANTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND POLEWARD AND WESTWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY LIGHT
TO MODERATE (10-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AT 29-30C ARE ALSO FAVORABLE. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25
TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW
210200) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1) TO
HIGH.//
NNNN


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