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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220121031429.C6D631C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Fri, 21 Jan 2022 03:14:29 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 210314
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Jan 21 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale Warning for Pacific waters: A well-defined area of low pressure 
producing gale-force winds is located more than 1000 miles east-
northeast of Hilo, Hawaii near 22N136W. The gale winds prevail
over the northern semicircle, with seas ranging between 8 to 16
ft. Shower and thunderstorm activity has decreased a little 
during the past several hours. Environmental conditions appear to
be only marginally favorable for additional development, and 
they are expected to become much less favorable on Friday. 
However, there is still a low chance for a short-lived 
subtropical or tropical cyclone to form during the next day or so
as the low moves northwestward to westward. 

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front moving through 
the western Gulf of Mexico through Fri will bring gale-force 
winds over the Tehuantepec region Fri morning through Sun night. 
Seas will reach as high as 12 ft in the Gulf of Tehuantepec on  
Sat. Winds and seas will diminish over the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
early next week.

For more information on these events, see the latest East 
Pacific High Seas Forecast product.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 08N78W to 06N94W. The ITCZ
continues from 06N94W TO 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection 
is noted along the ITCZ mainly W of 129W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details 
on the Gale Warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

Surface ridging prevails W of the Baja California, supporting 
fresh to strong winds off Baja California and its Gulf tonight. 
Light to gentle variable winds prevail elsewhere off Mexico with 
seas of 3 to 5 ft as indicated by recent altimeter data.

For the forecast, the high pressure building W of the Baja 
peninsula will continue to support NW fresh to locally strong 
winds across the Gulf of California through Fri. A cold front 
will move into the northern Gulf of California and the waters off
Baja California Norte on Sat, then stall and dissipate over Baja
California Sur and the southern Gulf of California Sun into Mon.
Winds and seas will be enhanced in the vicinity of the front.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

High pressure N of the area is supporting fresh to strong NE to 
E gap winds across the Papagayo region extending to near 92W. 
Seas across that area are in the 5 to 6 ft range. Moderate to 
locally fresh northerly winds are in the Gulf of Panama region 
with seas to 6 ft. Elsewhere winds are moderate or weaker with 
seas in the 3 to 5 ft range.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will prevail
across the Papagayo region through the middle of next week. 
Elsewhere, winds should remain tranquil for the next several 
days. Large NW to N swell from the Gulf of Tehuantepec will 
impact the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters Sat night 
through Sun night. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

Please see Special Features for details about the Pacific Gale 
Warning.

A large area of fresh to near gale force NE to E winds are N of
22N and W of 125W associated with the gale low pressure area
described above. Seas in the area are raging between 8-16 ft. 
Gentle to moderate easterly winds and 5 to 7 ft seas prevail 
elsewhere across the region.

For the forecast, high pressure building N of the 1006 mb low 
pressure will continue to support a large area of fresh to 
strong E winds through Fri. By Fri afternoon, the low will move 
west 140W and weaken substantially. Winds and seas will subside 
as the low continues moving W away from the area and weakening. 

$$
ERA


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