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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220121084704.064011C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Fri, 21 Jan 2022 08:47:03 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 210846
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Jan 21 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale Warning for Pacific waters: An area of low pressure is 
located more than 1000 miles east-northeast of Hilo, Hawaii near
23N138W. Gale-force winds prevail over the northern semicircle of
the low through this morning, with seas ranging between 8 to 17 
ft. Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to decrease 
towards the morning. Environmental conditions appear to be only 
marginally favorable for additional development, and they are 
expected to become much less favorable on Friday. However, there 
is still a low chance for a short-lived subtropical or tropical 
cyclone to form during the next day or so as the low moves 
northwestward to westward. 

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front will continue moving
through the western Gulf of Mexico today bringing gale-force 
winds over the Tehuantepec region through Sun night. Seas will 
reach as high as 12 ft in the Gulf of Tehuantepec on Sat. Winds 
and seas will diminish over the area through early next week.

For more information on these events, see the latest East 
Pacific High Seas Forecast product.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 08N79W to 06N98W. The ITCZ continues
from 06N98W to 07N112W, then resumes W of a trough near 08N120W 
to 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the
trough from 04N-07N between 84W-87W, and from 08N-12N and W of
130W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details 
on the Gale Warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

Surface ridging prevails W of the Baja California, supporting 
fresh to strong winds off Baja California and its Gulf towards
the morning. Light to gentle variable winds prevail elsewhere 
off Mexico with seas of 3 to 5 ft as indicated by recent 
altimeter data.

For the forecast, the high pressure building W of the Baja 
peninsula will continue to support NW fresh to locally strong 
winds across the Gulf of California through this morning. A cold
front will move into the northern Gulf of California and the 
waters off Baja California Norte on Sat, then stall and dissipate
over Baja California Sur and the southern Gulf of California Sun
into Mon. Winds and seas will be enhanced in the vicinity of the
front.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

High pressure N of the area is supporting fresh to strong NE to 
E gap winds across the Papagayo region extending to near 90W. 
Seas across that area are in the 5 to 6 ft range. Moderate to 
locally fresh northerly winds are in the Gulf of Panama region 
with seas to 5 ft. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with 
seas in the 3 to 5 ft range.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will pulse
across the Papagayo region through the middle of next week. 
Elsewhere, winds should remain tranquil for the next several 
days. Large NW to N swell from the Gulf of Tehuantepec will 
impact the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters Sat night 
through Sun night. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

Please see Special Features for details about the Pacific Gale 
Warning.

A large area of fresh to near gale force NE to E winds are N of
20N and W of 128W associated with the gale low pressure area 
described above. Seas in the area are raging between 8-17 ft. 
Gentle to moderate easterly winds and 5 to 7 ft seas prevail 
elsewhere across the region.

For the forecast, high pressure building N of the 1006 mb low 
pressure will continue to support a large area of fresh to 
strong E winds through today. By this afternoon, the low will 
move west 140W and weaken substantially. Winds and seas will 
subside as the low continues moving W away from the area while 
weakening. 

$$
ERA


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