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From: <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Subject: Pacific SE: Tropical Disturbance Summary
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Message-ID: <20220121085606.BEAF91C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Fri, 21 Jan 2022 08:56:06 +0000
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847 
WWPS21 NFFN 210600
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 210855 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD05F CENTER [1000HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 21.7S
162.8W AT 210600UTC. TD05F MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 07 KNOTS. POSITION
GOOD BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. SST AROUND 27
DEGREES CELCIUS.

AN ACTIVE CONVERGENCE ZONE WITH ASSOCIATED CLOUD BANDS LIES DETACHED
TO THE EAST OF THE SUPPOSED LLCC. TD05F LIES IN A MODERATE TO HIGH
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE TO THE EAST OF LLCC.


GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHWARDS WITH
NO INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 48 HRS IS LOW.

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 NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.


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