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From: <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: RSMC La Reunion Tropical Cyclone Analysis
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Message-ID: <20220121120435.B7DBC1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Fri, 21 Jan 2022 12:04:35 +0000
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292 
AWIO20 FMEE 211157

TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN

DATE: 2022/01/21 AT 1200 UTC

PART 1:

WARNING SUMMARY:

Warning WTIO22 and WTIO30 FMEE 001/01 to be issued at 12UTC on zone of disturbed weather 01-200212022.

PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:

The trans-equatorial monsoon flow is present over almost the entire width of the basin and will strengthen in the next few days with the active phase of the MJO and the passage of an Equatorial Rossby wave. The Monsoon trough (MT) is currently visible east of 70oE and will gradually strengthen on an axis 17S/55E 8S/85E. Within this TM, a disturbed zone with a closed circulation north of the Mascarene Islands is monitored by the CMRS and a cyclogenesis zone is monitored further east.

Zone of distrubed weather 01-20212022 North of the Mascarene Islands:

A closed circulation is thus followed since today by the CMRS and it is qualified as Zone of Disturbed weather 01-20212022 at 12Z. Its position is 17.2S 55.9E with a center at 1003hPa and winds around 25 knots. It is currently moving west-southwest at 19kt.

For more information, refer to technical bulletins WTI022 and WTIO30 which will be issued at 12UTC and following.

Area south of Diego-Garcia:

Around 75/80E, a second tropical minimum could develop as surface convergence improves. However, the intensification could be delayed by a temporary weakness of the polar trade winds until Tuesday. At altitude, conditions seem favorable under the ridge protecting it from the shear from Tuesday. Then, an intensification phase is possible from Tuesday to Wednesday.

The risk of formation of a tropical storm becomes weak Monday, then moderate from Wednesday south of Diego Garcia.

NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of the genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin and within the next five days:

Very low:       less than 10%              Moderate:        30% to 60%        Very high:      over 90%
Low:             10% to 30%                  High:               60% to 90%

The Southwestern Indian Ocean basin extends from the equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.

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