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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220121152600.007A61C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Fri, 21 Jan 2022 15:25:59 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 211525
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Jan 21 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front will slowly move
across the eastern and southern Gulf of Mexico today. This is
bringing gale- force winds over the Tehuantepec region with seas
8-10 ft. The gale-force winds will continue through Sun night. 
Seas will reach as high as 12 ft in the Gulf of Tehuantepec and
peak by Sat morning. Winds and seas will diminish over the area 
through early next week.

For more information on these events, see the latest East 
Pacific High Seas Forecast product.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends off the coast of Colombia near 07N78W to
06N87W to 06N99W. The ITCZ extends from 06N99W to 08N115W, then
resumes W of a trough near 08N124W to 09N140W. The trough extends
from 07N122W to 11N117W. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is noted off the Colombia coast from 03N to 08N and E 
of 81W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 07N 
between 84W and 94W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details 
on the Gale Warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

Surface ridging continues to prevail W of Baja California.
Moderate N winds are noted off of Baja California with seas 3-5
ft. Moderate to fresh winds prevail in the central Gulf of 
California with seas to 6 ft. Light to gentle winds are observed 
in the northern Gulf and gentle to moderate winds in the southern
Gulf with seas 2-4 ft. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere 
across the offshores of Mexico with seas 3-5 ft. Showers are 
noted off the coast of Jalisco through Michoacan. 

For the forecast, gale-force winds will continue across the Gulf
of Tehuantepec through Sun night with seas building to 12 ft.
Meanwhile, winds will become gentle to moderate across the Gulf 
of California today. A cold front will move into the northern 
Gulf of California and off of Baja California Norte on Sat. Fresh
to strong winds can be expected in the northern Gulf on Sat 
morning with seas to 5 ft. The front will stall and dissipate 
over Baja California Sur and the southern Gulf of California Sun 
into Mon. Moderate to locally fresh winds can be expected in the 
Gulf through Sun night. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

High pressure N of the area is supporting fresh to strong NE to 
E gap winds across the Papagayo region extending to near 90W. 
Seas across that area are 5-6 ft. Moderate to locally fresh 
northerly winds are in the Gulf of Panama region with seas to 5 
ft. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with seas 3-5 ft.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will pulse
across the Papagayo region through the middle of next week. Winds
will pulse moderate to fresh across the Gulf of Panama through 
early next week. Elsewhere, winds should remain tranquil for the 
next several days. Large NW to N swell from the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec will impact the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore 
waters Sat night through Sun night. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

A 1006 mb low is near 23N139W which is a little more than 1000
miles east-northeast of Hilo, Hawaii. Strong winds are noted 
north of the low with seas 12 to 17 ft. Showers and thunderstorms
around this low have decreased and become less organized, and is
noted east of the low from 13N to 25N between 126W and 133W. 
This system is expected to move westward into increasingly 
unfavorable environmental conditions during the next day or so, 
and development into a subtropical or tropical cyclone is 
unlikely. This low has a low chance of development in the next 
48 hours and 5 days. 

For the forecast, high pressure building N of the 1006 mb low 
pressure will continue to support a large area of fresh to 
strong E winds today. As the low moves west of 140W later today,
it will substantially weaken. Winds and seas are expected to
diminish this afternoon through tonight. 

$$
AReinhart


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