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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220121220605.73AAC1C0087@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Fri, 21 Jan 2022 22:06:05 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 212206
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Jan 21 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2150 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure ridging
building behind a frontal boundary in the Gulf of Mexico will
continue to support a gap wind event with gale force winds to 40
kt in the region of the Tehuantepec. These conditions will
continue through Sun night, allowing for seas to build up to 14
ft. For more information on this event, see the latest East 
Pacific High Seas Forecast product.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends off the coast of Colombia near 07N77W 
to 06N88W to 05N97W. The ITCZ extends from 05N99W to 0 9N114W, 
then resumes W of a trough near 08N122W to 08N140W. Scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection is noted off the Colombia 
coast N of 03N E of 81W, and from 05N to 10N between 82W and 
90W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details 
on the Gale Warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

Gentle to moderate N to NW winds are off the Baja peninsula and
the Gulf of California with seas to 3 ft in the gulf and 3 to 5
ft elsewhere off Baja California. Gale force winds continue in
the region of Tehuantepec with seas in the 8 to 12 ft range.
Otherwise, light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere across
the SW Mexican offshores with seas to 5 ft. 

For the forecast, gale-force winds will continue across the Gulf
of Tehuantepec through Sun night with seas building to 14 ft. 
A weak cold front will move into the northern Gulf of California
and off of Baja California Norte on Sat. Fresh to strong winds 
can be expected in the northern Gulf on Sat morning with seas to 
4 ft. The front will stall and dissipate over Baja California 
Sur and the southern Gulf of California Sun morning. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Strong high pressure over the W Atlantic extending to the
northern Caribbean continue to support fresh to strong NE to E 
gap winds across the Papagayo region with seas to 6 ft. Light to
gentle variable winds with seas to 6 ft are elsewhere, except for
moderate SW winds off the coast of Colombia and Ecuador. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will pulse
across the Papagayo region through the middle of next week with
seas building to 9 ft over the weekend. Winds will pulse 
moderate to fresh across the Gulf of Panama tonight through 
early next week. Elsewhere, winds should remain tranquil for the 
next several days. Large NW to N swell from the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec will impact the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore 
waters Sat night through Sun night. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

A 1010 mb low is near 23N140W. Fresh to strong winds are noted 
north of the low in latest scatterometer data where seas are in
the 8 to 13 ft range. There is no convection associated with the
low. This system is expected to move westward into increasingly 
unfavorable environmental conditions during the next day or so, 
and development into a subtropical or tropical cyclone is 
unlikely. This low has a low chance of development in the next 48
hours and 5 days. 

For the forecast, high pressure building N of the low pressure 
will continue to support a large area of fresh to strong E winds 
today. As the low moves west of 140W later today, it will 
substantially weaken. Winds and seas are expected to diminish 
this afternoon through tonight. 

$$
Ramos


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