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From: <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Subject: Pacific SE: Tropical Disturbance Summary
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Message-ID: <20220121232035.3C9061C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Fri, 21 Jan 2022 23:20:35 +0000
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302 
WWPS21 NFFN 212100
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 212320 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD05F CENTER [1001HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 23.7S
162.0W AT 212100UTC. TD05F MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT 08 KNOTS. POSITION
GOOD BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 IR & VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. SST AROUND
27 DEGREES CELCIUS.

AN ACTIVE CONVERGENCE ZONE WITH ASSOCIATED CLOUD BANDS LIES DETACHED
TO THE EAST OF THE SUPPOSED LLCC. TD05F LIES IN A HIGH SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE TO THE EAST OF LLCC. 

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHWARDS WITH
NO INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 48 HRS IS VERY LOW.

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 NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.


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