Received-SPF: pass (google.com: domain of wx-tropl-owner@lists.illinois.edu designates 148.163.135.28 as permitted sender) client-ip=148.163.135.28;
From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Tropical Disturbance 1 
Message-ID: <20220122012048.9584F1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sat, 22 Jan 2022 01:20:48 +0000
MIME-Version: 1.0
Reply-To: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Errors-to: wx-tropl-owner@lists.illinois.edu
Precedence: list
Precedence: bulk
Content-type: multipart/mixed; boundary="----------=_1642814451-90867-940"

This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

------------=_1642814451-90867-940
Content-Type: text/plain

WTIO30 FMEE 220048
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/1/20212022
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1

2.A POSITION 2022/01/22 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.2 S / 53.1 E
(EIGHTEEN    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY THREE    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 16 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: NIL

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/01/22 12 UTC: 17.6 S / 49.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 250 SW: 195 NW: 0

24H: 2022/01/23 00 UTC: 16.3 S / 47.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

36H: 2022/01/23 12 UTC: 15.4 S / 45.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER

48H: 2022/01/24 00 UTC: 14.9 S / 44.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 250 SW: 195 NW: 0

60H: 2022/01/24 12 UTC: 14.9 S / 42.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 250 SW: 195 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 130 NW: 0

72H: 2022/01/25 00 UTC: 15.3 S / 40.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 250 SW: 195 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 130 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/01/26 00 UTC: 16.7 S / 38.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 250 SW: 195 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 120 SW: 130 NW: 0

120H: 2022/01/27 00 UTC: 18.1 S / 36.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 250 SW: 195 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 120 SW: 130 NW: 0

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.0

THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OF THIS SYSTEM, AFTER HAVING FLUCTUATED A LOT
DURING THE EVENING AND THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT, IS EXPERIENCING A
RENEWED ACTIVITY AT THE END OF THE NIGHT. COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO,
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS IMPROVED WITH INTENSE CONVECTION WITH
PERIPHERAL BANDS SHOWING CURVATURE VISIBLE AT THE EDGE OF THE SCOPE
OF THE COLORADO RADAR. THE SEQUENCE OF AMSR2 AND GPM IMAGERS AROUND
22Z-23Z SHOWS A CENTER STILL QUITE ILL-DEFINED AND ELONGATED ALTHOUGH
A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED THAN BEFORE. FOR LACK OF MORE OBJECTIVE DATA
TO ESTIMATE THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM, THE INTENSITY ANALYSIS IS
BASED ON THE DVORAK METHOD.

THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS SYSTEM REMAINS COMPLEX WITH THE PRESENCE OF A
SECONDARY POLE OF VORTICITY WHICH IS BEING FORMED TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE PRESENT SYSTEM, BETWEEN AGALEGA AND TROMELIN, WITHIN A VAST LOW
PRESSURE AREA PRESENT TO THE EAST OF MADAGASCAR.

IN TERMS OF TRACKS, THIS SMALL SYSTEM IS STILL GRAVITATING IN THE
SHORT TERM IN THE CLOCKWISE DIRECTION WITHIN THE LARGE DEPRESSION
AREA. ITS TRAJECTORY WILL THUS TURN WEST-NORTHWEST DURING SATURDAY
BEFORE TOUCHING THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR. ON SUNDAY DURING THE
DAY, THE SECONDARY MINIMUM ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LARGE LOW-PRESSURE
AREA IS ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND BETWEEN ANTALAHA AND
SAINTE-MARIE ISLAND.
ON SUNDAY DURING THE DAY, THIS LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA SHOULD EMERGE
OVER THE NORTH OF THE CHANNEL AND THEN MOVE TOWARDS THE MOZAMBICAN
COASTS IN A LOW TO MID EASTERLY STEERING FLOW THEN TURNING
NORTHEASTERLY. THE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK PREDICTION, ALTHOUGH
INCREASING (SLIGHTLY MORE CONVERGENT SOLUTIONS OF THE MODELS),
REMAINS LOW.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE POSSIBILITIES OF SHORT TERM DEVELOPMENT
ARE ESSENTIALLY THWARTED BY THE ORIGINAL LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH
THE PRESENCE OF THIS SECONDARY MINIMUM, THWARTING THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. AN EASTERLY CONSTRAINT STILL EXISTS BUT IS DECREASING.
FROM SUNDAY MONDAY, THE CONDITIONS APPEAR RATHER FAVORABLE OVER THE
NORTH OF THE CHANNEL FOR A DEVELOPMENT (STRONG OCEANIC POTENTIAL,
GOOD MONSOON SUPPLY) WITHOUT BEING COMPLETELY OPTIMAL WITH THE
PROBABLE PERSISTENCE OF AN EASTERLY CONSTRAINT. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS QUITE CLOSE TO THE LAST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.

EXPECTED CONSEQUENCES ON INHABITED LANDS :
- OVER MADAGASCAR, RAINFALL TOTALS OF MORE THAN 100 MM BETWEEN A LE
SAINTE-MARIE IN THE NORTH AND MAHANORO IN THE SOUTH (SIGNIFICANTLY
MORE OVER THE PLATEAUS) DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE RAINS CONTINUE
ON SUNDAY. WIND GUSTS TO 90 KM/H POSSIBLE NEAR THE IMPACT AREA.

- NORTH MOZAMBIC CHANNEL (COMOROS-MOZAMBIQUE ARCHIPELAGO):
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT RAINY AND WINDY DEGRADATION FROM SUNDAY
(COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO) - MONDAY EVENING FOR MOZAMBIQUE.=

------------=_1642814451-90867-940
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Disposition: inline
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

= = = == = =
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-TROPL.
------------=_1642814451-90867-940--