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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220122091846.C95481C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sat, 22 Jan 2022 09:18:46 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 220918
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Jan 22 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure ridging
building behind a frontal boundary in the Gulf of Mexico will
continue to support a gap wind event with gale force winds to 40
kt in the Tehuantepec region. These conditions will continue 
through Sun night, allowing for seas to build up to 13-14 ft at
times. For more information on this event, see the latest East 
Pacific High Seas Forecast product.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends off the coast of Colombia near 07N78W 
to 05N100W. The ITCZ begins W of a trough near 09N119W to 07N140W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted within 100 nm on either 
side of the ITCZ between 120W-131W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details 
on the Gale Warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

Light to gentle N to NW winds are off the Baja peninsula and the
Gulf of California with seas to 3 ft in the gulf and 3 to 5 ft 
elsewhere off Baja California. Gale force winds continue in the 
region of Tehuantepec with seas in the 8 to 12 ft range. 
Otherwise, light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere across 
the SW Mexican offshores with seas to 5 ft. 

For the forecast, gale-force winds will continue across the Gulf
of Tehuantepec through Sun night with seas building to 14 ft. 
A weak cold front will move into the northern Gulf of California
and off of Baja California Norte today. Fresh to strong winds 
can be expected in the northern Gulf this morning with seas to 4
ft. The front will stall and dissipate over Baja California Sur 
and the southern Gulf of California Sun morning. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Strong high pressure over the W Atlantic extending to the
northern Caribbean continue to support fresh to strong NE to E 
gap winds across the Papagayo region with seas to 7 ft. Light to
gentle variable winds with seas to 6 ft are elsewhere, except 
for moderate SW winds off the coast of Colombia and Ecuador. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will pulse
across the Papagayo region through the middle of next week with
seas building to 9 ft over the weekend. Winds will pulse 
moderate to fresh across the Gulf of Panama through early next 
week. Elsewhere, winds should remain tranquil for the next 
several days. Large NW to N swell from the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
will impact the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters tonight
through Sun night. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

A 1010 mb low is near 22N142W. Fresh to strong winds are noted 
north of the low in latest scatterometer data where seas are in 
the 8 to 11 ft range. There is no convection associated with the 
low in the area. This system is expected to continue moving 
westward into hostile environmental conditions and development 
into a subtropical or tropical cyclone is not expected. A surface
trough, reflection of an upper-level low, extends from 21N133W 
to 12N136W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 500 nm 
east of the trough.

For the forecast, high pressure building N of the low pressure 
will continue to support a large area of fresh to strong E winds 
tonight. As the low moves west, it will substantially weaken. 
Winds and seas are expected to diminish by tomorrow morning. The
surface trough in the vicinity of 133W will prevail across the
area over the next few days with convection.

$$
ERA


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