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From: <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: RSMC La Reunion Tropical Cyclone Analysis
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Date: Sat, 22 Jan 2022 11:35:38 +0000
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613 
AWIO20 FMEE 221133

TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN

DATE: 2022/01/22 AT 1200 UTC

PART 1:

WARNING SUMMARY:


Warning WTIO22 and WTIO30 FMEE 004/01 to be issued at 12UTC on zone of disturbed weather 01-200212022.

PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:


The trans-equatorial monsoon flow is present over almost the entire width of the basin and will strengthen in the next few days with the active phase of the MJO and the passage of an Equatorial Rossby wave. The Monsoon trough (MT) is currently visible east of 70oE and will gradually strengthen on an axis 16S/52E 8S/90E. Within this TM, a Tropicale Depression, monitored by the CMRS  north of the Mascarene Islands, has landed over the eastern coast of Magascar last hours.

A cyclogenesis zone is monitored further east south of Diego Garcia.

A low  could form alonf the eastern coast of Madagascar from Tuesday.

Depression on land over Madagascar :

position at 9UTC : 17.7S/49.2E

displacement : 20kt West-North-West

Average wind 10min : 30kt

The system landed near Taomasina shortly before 08UTC

For more information, refer to technical bulletins WTI022 and WTIO30 which will be issued at 12UTC and following.

Area south of Diego-Garcia:

Around 75/80E, a second tropical minimum could develop as surface convergence improves. However, the intensification could be delayed by a temporary weakness of the polar trade winds until Tuesday. At altitude, conditions seem favorable under the ridge protecting it from the shear from Tuesday. Then, an intensification phase is possible from Tuesday to Wednesday.

Area north of the Mascarene Islands :

The available models propose the formation of a circulation along the East coast of Madagascar at the beginning of the week, mainly fed by the polar flow, and with a feed on the Equatorial side limited by the proximity of the Big Island. Under the influence of high geopotentials in MT over southern Madagascar and the establishment of a ridge on the north of the channel, this minimum moves northward to find a better convergence of BC, with a good divergence of altitude.

The risk of formation of a tropical storm becomes weak  from Wednesday south of Diego Garcia, and become weak to moderate north of the Mascarene Islands from Thursday.


NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of the genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin and within the next five days:

Very low:       less than 10%              Moderate:        30% to 60%        Very high:      over 90%
Low:             10% to 30%                  High:               60% to 90%

The Southwestern Indian Ocean basin extends from the equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.

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