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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Overland Depression 1 
Message-ID: <20220122123554.4A5861C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sat, 22 Jan 2022 12:35:54 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 221232
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/1/20212022
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 1

2.A POSITION 2022/01/22 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.4 S / 48.4 E
(SEVENTEEN    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY EIGHT    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 20 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 20 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/01/23 00 UTC: 16.6 S / 46.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

24H: 2022/01/23 12 UTC: 15.8 S / 45.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE

36H: 2022/01/24 00 UTC: 15.3 S / 43.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 0 NW: 0

48H: 2022/01/24 12 UTC: 15.5 S / 40.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 55

60H: 2022/01/25 00 UTC: 15.7 S / 39.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 75 SW: 0 NW: 0

72H: 2022/01/25 12 UTC: 16.3 S / 38.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/01/26 12 UTC: 17.1 S / 35.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=NIL

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01-20212022 LANDED NEAR TAOMASINA SHORTLY BEFORE
0800UTC WITH ESTIMATED WINDS OF ABOUT 30KT. THE DATA OBSERVED IN
MADAGASCAR DOES NOT ALLOW TO VALIDATE FOR THE MOMENT THE STAGE OF
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM AT THE TIME OF ITS LANDING WHICH TOOK PLACE
ALMOST 4H BEFORE THE RSMC FORECASTS. THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY REMAINS STRONG AND CAUSES HEAVY PRECIPITATIONS WHICH
PENETRATE THE MALAGASY LANDS NORTH OF 21S. THE LAST MICROWAVE AT
1026UTC ALLOWS A RELATIVELY GOOD LOCALIZATION OF THE SYSTEM BUT ALSO
SHOWS A SECONDARY CIRCULATION AROUND 16.6S/52.5E ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS REMAIN UNCHANGED FOR THE SHORT TERM: DRIVEN BY
THE STRENGTHENING OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERE HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS LOCATED
SOUTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AND AIDED BY THE PRESENCE OF A
SECONDARY VORTICITY POLE NOTED ABOVE, THE TRACK REMAINS
WEST-NORTHWEST AS IT CROSSES MADAGASCAR. ON SUNDAY DURING THE DAY,
THE SECONDARY MINIMUM ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE LOW-PRESSURE AREA
SHOULD ALSO ENTER THE LAND BETWEEN ANTALAHA AND SAINTE-MARIE ISLAND
AS SYSTEM 01 ARRIVES BACK AT SEA.
THEN GUIDED BY A STRONGER EASTERLY FLOW, THE SYSTEM IS HEADING
TOWARDS THE MOZAMBICAN COASTS WHICH IT WILL REACH BY MONDAY EVENING.
FOLLOWING THE SHIFT OF THE CENTER OF ACTION TO THE SOUTH-EAST OF
MADAGASCAR, THE STEERING FLOW IS PROGRESSIVELY TAKING A NORTH-EAST
DIRECTION ON A LONGER TIME SCALE. THE RSMC FORECAST THUS FORESEES A
LANDING OF THE SYSTEM ON THE AFRICAN COASTS BUT WITH A TRACK TANGENT
TO THE COASTS. THIS SITUATION LEAVES A WIND POTENTIAL CLOSE TO
30/35KT ALONG THE SEA COASTS BUT THE DISPERSION IN THE MODELS ABOUT
THE SHIFT OF THE CENTER OF ACTION TO THE SOUTH OF THE CHANNEL LEAVES
A POSSIBILITY OF A TRACK ON THE SEA, WHICH IS NOT FOLLOWED FOR THE
MOMENT BY THE RSMC.

THE LANDING HAVING TAKEN PLACE EARLIER THAN EXPECTED, THE DEPRESSION
WILL TRANSIT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS ON LAND BEFORE COMING OUT
TOWARDS MAHAJANGA AT THE END OF SUNDAY MORNING. FROM SUNDAY/MONDAY,
THE CONDITIONS APPEAR RATHER FAVORABLE ON THE NORTH OF THE CHANNEL
FOR A DEVELOPMENT (STRONG OCEANIC POTENTIAL, GOOD MONSOON FEEDING)
WITHOUT BEING HOWEVER COMPLETELY OPTIMAL BECAUSE OF AN OMNIPRESENT
SHEAR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS QUITE FAITHFUL TO THE LAST AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE, PRESENTING A POTENTIAL OF INTENSIFICATION A LITTLE MORE
MARKED. A LANDING ON THE AFRICAN COASTS AT THE STAGE OF A STRONG
TROPICAL STORM IS THUS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AT THE END OF THE DAY.

EXPECTED CONSEQUENCES ON INHABITED LANDS :
- OVER MADAGASCAR, THE RAINS ALREADY PRESENT WILL CONTINUE WITH
RAINFALL TOTALS OF MORE THAN 100 MM BETWEEN SAINTE-MARIE ISLAND IN
THE NORTH AND MAHANORO IN THE SOUTH (SIGNIFICANTLY MORE ON THE
PLATEAUS) DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE RAINS WILL CONTINUE ON
SUNDAY. WIND GUSTS WILL WEAKEN.

- NORTH MOZAMBIC CHANNEL (COMOROS-MOZAMBIQUE ARCHIPELAGO):
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT RAINY AND WINDY DEGRADATION FROM SUNDAY
(COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO) - MONDAY EVENING FOR MOZAMBIQUE.=

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