Received-SPF: pass (google.com: domain of wx-tropl-owner@lists.illinois.edu designates 148.163.135.28 as permitted sender) client-ip=148.163.135.28;
From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220122153819.735161C0087@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sat, 22 Jan 2022 15:38:19 +0000
MIME-Version: 1.0
Reply-To: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Errors-to: wx-tropl-owner@lists.illinois.edu
Precedence: list
Precedence: bulk
Content-type: multipart/mixed; boundary="----------=_1642865906-90867-1525"

This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

------------=_1642865906-90867-1525
Content-Type: text/plain

AXPZ20 KNHC 221537
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Jan 22 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure ridging
building behind a cold front in the Gulf of Mexico will continue
to support a gap wind event with gale force winds to 40 kt in the
Tehuantepec region. These conditions will continue through Sun 
night, allowing for seas to build up to above 14 ft at times. 
For more information on this event, see the latest East Pacific 
High Seas Forecast product.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends off the coast of Colombia from a 1009 mb
low pres near 09N75W to 04N88W to 05N100W. The ITCZ begins further
W of a trough near 10N118W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted south of the trough from 02N
to 07N and E of 81W. Scattered showers are noted along the ITCZ 
from 07N to 16N between 116W to 130W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details 
on the Gale Warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

The latest scatterometer pass shows light to moderate N to NW 
winds off the Baja peninsula and light to gentle winds along 
the Gulf of California with seas between 2 to 3 ft in the gulf 
and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere off Baja California. Observations also
indicate the ongoing gale force wind event over the Tehuantepec 
region with seas building between 10 to 14 ft. Otherwise, light 
to gentle variable winds are elsewhere across the SW Mexican 
offshores with seas to 5 ft. 

For the forecast, gale-force winds will continue across the Gulf
of Tehuantepec through Sun night with seas building to 14 ft. 
A weak cold front will move into the northern Gulf of California
and off of Baja California Norte today. Fresh to strong winds 
can be expected in the northern Gulf this morning with seas to 4
ft. The front will stall and dissipate over Baja California Sur 
and the southern Gulf of California Sun morning. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Strong high pressure over the W Atlantic extending to the
northern Caribbean continue to support fresh to strong NE to E 
gap winds across the Papagayo region with seas to 7 ft. Light to
gentle variable winds with seas to 6 ft are elsewhere, except 
for moderate SW winds off the coast of Colombia and Ecuador. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will pulse
across the Papagayo region through early next week with seas 
building to 9 ft over the weekend. Winds will pulse moderate to 
fresh across the Gulf of Panama through early next week. 
Elsewhere, winds should remain tranquil for the next several 
days. Large NW to N swell from the Gulf of Tehuantepec will 
impact the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters tonight 
through Sun night. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

A 1010 mb low is near 22N142W. Fresh to strong winds are noted 
north of the low in latest scatterometer data where seas are in 
the 8 to 11 ft range. There is no convection associated with the 
low in the area. This system is expected to continue moving 
westward into hostile environmental conditions and development 
into a subtropical or tropical cyclone is not expected. A surface
trough, reflection of an upper-level low, extends from 14N126W 
to 18N128W.

For the forecast, high pressure building N of the low pressure 
will continue to support a large area of fresh to strong E winds 
tonight. As the low moves west, it will substantially weaken. 
Winds and seas are expected to diminish by tomorrow morning. The
surface trough in the vicinity of 133W will prevail across the
area over the next few days with convection.

$$
Torres


------------=_1642865906-90867-1525
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Disposition: inline
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

= = = == = =
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-TROPL.
------------=_1642865906-90867-1525--