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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: Subj/tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (invest 93s) Reissued// 
Message-ID: <20220122203238.E64921C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sat, 22 Jan 2022 20:32:38 +0000
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WTXS21 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93S) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/220151Z JAN 22//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED (WTXS21 PGTW
220200)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.5S 47.1E TO 16.2S 39.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 011800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 17.5S 46.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 17.5S 48.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.5S 46.7E, APPROXIMATELY
91NM NORTHWEST OF ANTANANAVIRO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATED AND COMPACT AREA OF
WRAPPING CONVECTION OVER AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLC). 93S IS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH ITS STRONG RADIAL
OUTFLOW AND DIVERGENCE BEING OFFSET BY MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND LAND INTERACTION. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM
WILL TRACK WEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND INTENSIFY ONCE OVER THE
WARM WATERS OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. THIS
SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
232100Z.
//
NNNN


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