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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Overland Depression 1 
Message-ID: <20220123004840.EB65A1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sun, 23 Jan 2022 00:48:40 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 230015
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/1/20212022
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 1

2.A POSITION 2022/01/23 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.4 S / 45.7 E
(SIXTEEN    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FIVE    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 13 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 20 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/01/23 12 UTC: 15.4 S / 44.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 150 SW: 0 NW: 205

24H: 2022/01/24 00 UTC: 15.5 S / 42.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 240 SW: 220 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SW: 0 NW: 0

36H: 2022/01/24 12 UTC: 15.7 S / 40.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 280 SW: 220 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 205 SW: 185 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 0

48H: 2022/01/25 00 UTC: 16.0 S / 38.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 370 SW: 335 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 280 SW: 0 NW: 0

60H: 2022/01/25 12 UTC: 16.4 S / 35.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 370 SW: 0 NW: 0

72H: 2022/01/26 00 UTC: 16.8 S / 33.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/01/27 00 UTC: 17.1 S / 31.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

120H: 2022/01/28 00 UTC: 17.2 S / 29.0 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=NIL

SYSTEM 01-20212022 IS STILL TRACKING OVERLAND ACROSS MADAGASCAR FROM
EAST TO WEST. IT'S CENTER IS NOW LOCATED IN MAHAJANGA'S PROVINCE,
GRADUALLY INCHING TOWARDS THE WESTERN COAST. ALTHOUGH IT HAS WEAKENED
A BIT OVERLAND, SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTS SWIRLING MASSES OF
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND ESPECIALLY A CURVED
BAND WRAPPING WEST AND NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER (ALSO CLEARLY
SEEN ON THE MICROWAVE SSMIS 1558Z PASS), WHICH TESTIFY OF HEALTHY
MID-LEVEL VORTICITY. MAHAJANGA'S MOST RECENT SURFACE PRESSURE DATA IS
DOWN TO 1002 HPA.

THE SYSTEM IS MOVING AND EXPECTED TO MOVE A BIT MORE RAPIDLY THAN IN
THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS, BUT THE GENERAL FORECAST TRACK HASN'T CHANGED
MUCH. STRENGTHENING HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS SOUTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL COMBINED WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA NORTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR
STEAR THE SYSTEM WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THIS SUNDAY UNTIL NOON.
MEANWHILE, THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL REBUILD NORTH OF CAPE
SAINT-ANDRE, ALSO INFLUENCED BY LOCAL SURFACE CONVERGENCE. THEN, IT
WILL DRIFT WESTWARD UNDER THE EASTERLY STEERING FLOW UNTIL MONDAY,
BEFORE SLIGHTLY SHIFTING WEST-SOUTHWEST FROM MONDAY EVENING ONWARDS,
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM SLIDES
EASTWARDS. THIS WILL LEAD IT TOWARDS THE MOZAMBICAN COAST BY MONDAY
AROUND NOON. THE RSMC'S FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
BEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. SPREAD HAS SLIGHTLY DECREASED IN RECENT NWP
OUTPUT, SO THERE IS BETTER CONFIDENCE ABOUT LANDFALL LOCATION ON
MOZAMBIQUE'S COAST AND THEN THE FACT THAT IT SHOULD REMAIN OVER LAND
FOR THE FOLLOWING DAYS.

THE SYSTEM SHOULD REGAIN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS IT TRACKS OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL'S WARM
WATERS. STRONG OCEANIC POTENTIAL COMBINED WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THE MONSOON FLOW IN THE NORTH OF THE CHANNEL AND
A SOUTHERN FLOW IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CHANNEL, IN A MOIST
TROPOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT, SHOULD FAVOR A RATHER FAST DEEPENING. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL NEVERTHELESS BE OFFSET BY THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE
SHEAR, ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM'S MOVEMENT AT AROUND 10KT CAN HELP REDUCE
THE EFFECTS OF SHEAR. ANOTHER SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY IS HOW FAST THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL REBUILD AS THE SYSTEM STARTS TRACKING OVER
THE CHANNEL. THUS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP INTO A
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM AND THEN POSSIBLY INTO A STRONG TROPICAL
STORM JUST BEFORE LANDFALL ON THE MOZAMBICAN COAST. THE RSMC'S
INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN THE UPPER RANGE OF AVAILABLE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE, WHICH SHOWS QUITE A BIG SPREAD, SO CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN
AVERAGE. ONCE OVER LAND, THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN, BUT
QUITE STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD REMAIN OFF
MOZAMBIQUE'S COAST UNTIL TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.

EXPECTED CONSEQUENCES ON INHABITED LANDS :
- MADAGASCAR : HEAVY RAINFALL ALREADY PRESENT WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY
OR EVEN MONDAY WITH SOME HIGH PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION OVER THE
NORTHWEST, NORTH AND EAST. STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY IN THE VICINITY OF
CAPE SAINT ANDRE ON SUNDAY.
- MOZAMBIQUE (AND NEARBY COUNTRIES INLAND) : POSSIBLE GUSTS NEAR OR
ABOVE 100 KM/H ON MONDAY WHEN THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL ON THE COAST,
PROBABLY SOMEWHERE BETWEEN ANGOCHE AND THE ISLAND OF MOZAMBIQUE.
HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED BETWEEN NAMPULA AND QUELIMANE AREAS AND THEN
FURTHER INLAND TOWARDS SOUTHERN MALAWI .
 - COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO AND JUAN DE NOVA : POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANTLY
DISTURBED CONDITIONS (RAIN AND WIND) FROM SUNDAY ONWARDS IN THE
SYSTEM'S PERIPHERY. WIND GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE 100 KM/H POSSIBLE ON
JUAN DE NOVA.=

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