Received-SPF: pass (google.com: domain of wx-tropl-owner@lists.illinois.edu designates 148.163.139.28 as permitted sender) client-ip=148.163.139.28;
From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220123032843.5080B1C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sun, 23 Jan 2022 03:28:43 +0000
MIME-Version: 1.0
Reply-To: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Errors-to: wx-tropl-owner@lists.illinois.edu
Precedence: list
Precedence: bulk
Content-type: multipart/mixed; boundary="----------=_1642908527-90867-1719"

This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

------------=_1642908527-90867-1719
Content-Type: text/plain

AXPZ20 KNHC 230328
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun Jan 23 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure building 
behind a cold front in the Gulf of Mexico will continue to support
a gap wind event with gale force winds to 40 kt in the Tehuantepec
region. These conditions will continue through Sun night, allowing
for seas to build up to above 14 ft at times. For more information
on this event, see the latest East Pacific High Seas Forecast 
product.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends off the coast of Colombia near 07N78W 
to 05N96W. The ITCZ begins near 05N96W to 08N109W, then resumes W
of a pair of troughs near 08N132W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted within the troughs from 09N-20N
between 110W-132W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details 
on the Gale Warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

Latest scatterometer data depicts light to gentle S to SW winds 
over the Gulf of California with lighter winds noted in the 
entrance to the gulf extending to Puerto Magdalena in Baja 
California Sur. Seas ranged between 2 to 4 ft in the gulf and 3 
to 5 ft elsewhere off Baja California. Observations indicate the
ongoing gale force wind event over the Tehuantepec region with 
seas currently in the 8 to 12 ft range. Otherwise, light to 
gentle variable winds are elsewhere across the SW Mexican 
offshores with seas to 5 ft. 

For the forecast, gale-force winds will continue across the Gulf
of Tehuantepec through Sun night with seas building to 14 ft.  
Gentle to moderate winds will pulse across the Gulf of California
on Sun, with seas in the 2-4 ft range. Light and gentle winds 
prevail elsewhere through the end of the week. The next strong 
cold front has the potential to reach the Gulf of Tehunatepec 
region by the end of the week with winds possibly reaching gale 
force. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Strong high pressure over the western Atlantic extending to the 
northern Caribbean continues to support a tight pressure gradient
enhancing fresh to strong NE to E gap winds across the Papagayo 
region with seas to 7 ft. Light to gentle variable winds with 
seas to 6 ft are elsewhere, except for moderate SW winds off the 
coast of Colombia and Ecuador. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will pulse
across the Papagayo region through early next week with seas 
building to 9 ft on Sun. Winds will pulse moderate to fresh 
across the Gulf of Panama through early next week. Remainder of 
area, winds should remain tranquil for the next several days. 
Large NW to N swell from the Gulf of Tehuantepec will impact the 
Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters tonight through Sun 
night. Strong cold front is forecast to move across the Gulf of 
Mexico and increase the chances for gale force winds to develop 
over the Gulf of Tehuantepec by the end of the week. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

A frontal boundary is apporaching from the NW, enhancing the 
seas N of 20N and W of 133W. A surface trough, reflection of an 
upper-level low, extends from 14N121W to 08N129W. Scattered 
showers and thunderstorms are noted in the vicinity of this
trough, mainly N of 09N between 110W-130W. 

For the forecast, the frontal boundary will stall W of the area.
Large swell will continue moving E across the NW portion of the 
basin, with seas ranging between 8-11 ft during the next few 
days. The surface trough in the vicinity of 125W will prevail 
across the area over the next few days with convection. Gentle to
moderate winds will prevail across the basin through the end of 
the week. 

$$
ERA


------------=_1642908527-90867-1719
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Disposition: inline
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

= = = == = =
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-TROPL.
------------=_1642908527-90867-1719--