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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Tropical Disturbance 1 
Message-ID: <20220123072353.974151C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sun, 23 Jan 2022 07:23:53 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 230713
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/1/20212022
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1

2.A POSITION 2022/01/23 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.6 S / 45.1 E
(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FIVE    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: NORTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/01/23 18 UTC: 15.3 S / 43.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0

24H: 2022/01/24 06 UTC: 15.7 S / 41.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 0 NW: 0

36H: 2022/01/24 18 UTC: 15.7 S / 38.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

48H: 2022/01/25 06 UTC: 16.1 S / 36.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

60H: 2022/01/25 18 UTC: 16.2 S / 34.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

72H: 2022/01/26 06 UTC: 16.4 S / 33.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/01/27 06 UTC: 16.8 S / 30.2 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, FILLING UP

120H: 2022/01/28 06 UTC: 16.8 S / 26.6 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=NIL

THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 01-20212022 HAS JUST ENTERED IN THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, JUST NORTH OF CAPE SAINT ANDRE. THE LAST VISIBLE
IMAGES SHOW A CLEAR IMPROVEMENT OF THE CLOUD PATTERN WITH A NICE
CURVED BAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN SECTOR OF THE CIRCULATION, SHOWING A
SUSTAINED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE LATEST PRESSURE OBSERVATIONS AT
BESALAMPY (NEAR THE SUPPOSED CENTER OF THE SYSTEM) ARE AROUND 1002
HPA. THE AVERAGE WIND INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS.

THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE EFFECT OF
A LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW GENERATED BY THE HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS OF THE
LOW AND MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE STRENGTHENING SOUTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL. NEXT WEEK, THE SYSTEM WILL HEAD TOWARDS THE MOZAMBICAN
COASTS, WHICH IT WILL REACH ON MONDAY MIDDAY. THEN, WITH THE SHIFT OF
THE HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR, THE STEERING
FLOW WILL TAKE AN EAST-NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT, TAKING THE SYSTEM
LONGER INLAND FROM MOZAMBIQUE. THEN THE REMNANT LOW WILL TRACK NEAR
SOUTHERN MALAWI AND NORTHERN ZIMBABWE BY MIDWEEK. THE CMRS FORECAST
IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE BEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE, WHOSE
DISPERSION IS DECREASING COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS NWP OUTPUT,
INDUCING A FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE ON THE TRACK.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD FIND TODAY MORE CONDUCIVE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FOR ITS DEVELOPMENT, UNTIL MONDAY, THE DAY
OF ITS LANDING ON THE MOZAMBICAN COAST. IT IS CURRENTLY FINDING A
STRONG OCEANIC POTENTIAL IN THE NORTH OF THE CHANNEL COMBINED WITH A
GOOD CONVERGENCE OF LOW LAYERS BETWEEN THE MONSOON FLOW IN THE NORTH
OF THE CHANNEL AND A SOUTHERN FLOW GOING UP IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE CHANNEL. IN A MOIST TROPOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT, THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
THEREFORE DEEPEN QUITE RAPIDLY. HOWEVER, THE PRESENCE OF A MODERATE
SHEAR ALOFT COULD SLOW DOWN THIS DEVELOPMENT, EVEN IF THE MOVEMENT OF
THE SYSTEM AT ABOUT 10KT IN THE DIRECTION OF THE SHEAR CAN REDUCE THE
EFFECTS. THUS, A RELATIVELY RAPID DEVELOPMENT IS CONSIDERED TO REACH
THE MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STAGE. THE STAGE OF SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
JUST BEFORE THE LANDING ON THE MOZAMBICAN COASTS IS NOT EXCLUDED,
EVEN IF THIS SCENARIO IS LESS SUPPORTED BY THE LAST GUIDANCE. THIS
INTENSITY PREDICTION IS THEREFORE MARKED BY A SMALL UNCERTAINTY. ONCE
ON LAND, THERE IS A FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT THE WINDS OF THE
SYSTEM WILL PROGRESSIVELY WEAKEN, EVEN IF SUSTAINED NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE MOZAMBICAN COAST UNTIL
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY, QUITE FAR FROM THE CORE'S SYSTEM.

EXPECTED CONSEQUENCES ON THE INHABITED LANDS :
- MADAGASCAR : THE HEAVY RAINS ALREADY PRESENT WILL CONTINUE TODAY
AND MONDAY WITH SOMETIMES VERY HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE
NORTHWEST, NORTH AND EASTERN PLATEAUS. STRONG GUSTS ARE LIKELY OVER
THE WEST BETWEEN ANTSIRANANA AND CAPE SAINT-ANDRE TODAY.
- MOZAMBIQUE (AND NEIGHBORING COUNTRIES INLAND): COASTAL GUSTS OF
MORE THAN 100 KM/H POSSIBLE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY WHEN THE
SYSTEM LANDS BETWEEN ANGOCHE AND MOZAMBIQUE ISLAND. HEAVY RAINFALL
NORTH OF QUELIMANE AT FIRST THEN FURTHER INLAND TO SOUTH OF MALAWI
OVERFLOWING TO CENTRAL MOZAMBIQUE.
 - CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CHANNEL (JUAN DE NOVA, COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO) :
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT RAINY AND WINDY DEGRADATION FROM TODAY
ONWARDS AT THE EDGE OF THE SYSTEM WITH THE SYSTEM EXITING INTO THE
CHANNEL. GUSTS COULD APPROACH 100 KM/H OR EVEN 110 KM/H ON JUAN DE
NOVA AND 70/80 KM/H ON MAYOTTE.=

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