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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian Ocean 
Message-ID: <20220123153449.169D91C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sun, 23 Jan 2022 15:34:49 +0000
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TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 231530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/231530Z-231800ZJAN2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/231351ZJAN2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 23JAN22 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 15.5S 44.2E, APPROXIMATELY 212 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NACALA,
MOZAMBIQUE, AND HAD TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35
KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 231500) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 17.5S 48.4E IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.
SEE PARA. 2.A.(1) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.6S
89.3E, APPROXIMATELY 493NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 231226Z SSMIS
91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DISPLAY DISORGANIZED CONVECTION AROUND A BROAD
LLC. A 230349Z ASCAT-B IMAGE SHOWS SHARP TROUGHING WITH 15-20KT
WINDS OVER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE AREA.  ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS DEFINED BY FAIR
OUTFLOW AND MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
OFFSET BY WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. ECMWF AND GFS ARE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OF
INVEST 96S WITH GFS PREDICTING MORE AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1) TO
WARNING STATUS AND ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(2).//
NNNN


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