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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The 
Message-ID: <20220123174046.B83091C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sun, 23 Jan 2022 17:40:46 +0000
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ABIO10 PGTW 231800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR/HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
INDIAN/OCEAN/231800Z-241800ZJAN2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/231351ZJAN2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 23JAN22 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 15.5S 44.2E, APPROXIMATELY 212 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NACALA,
MOZAMBIQUE, AND HAD TRACKED WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35
KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 231500) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.5S 89.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.2S 89.7E, APPROXIMATELY 455NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 231226Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DISPLAY
DISORGANIZED CONVECTION AROUND A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION(LLC). A
230349Z PARTIAL ASCAT-B IMAGE SHOWS SHARP TROUGHING WITH 15-20KT
WINDS OVER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE AREA. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES OVERALL MARGINAL CONDITIONS DEFINED BY AND MODERATE TO
HIGH (20-30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, OFFSET BY FAIR OUTFLOW AND
WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON THE SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OF INVEST 96S WITH
GFS PREDICTING MORE AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN


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