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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Tropical Depression 1 
Message-ID: <20220123184550.9E0CF1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sun, 23 Jan 2022 18:45:50 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 231823
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/1/20212022
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1

2.A POSITION 2022/01/23 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.7 S / 43.2 E
(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY THREE    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 165 SW: 220 NW: 220

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/01/24 06 UTC: 15.9 S / 40.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 270 SW: 270 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 95

24H: 2022/01/24 18 UTC: 15.6 S / 38.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 280 SW: 280 NW: 215

36H: 2022/01/25 06 UTC: 15.7 S / 35.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

48H: 2022/01/25 18 UTC: 15.9 S / 34.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

60H: 2022/01/26 06 UTC: 16.1 S / 32.6 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION


2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5-
T=CI=2.5

DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE SYSTEM HAS
IMPROVED IN THE NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE, AND NOTABLY WITH RECONSTRUCTION
OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AS SHOWN IN THE SATELLITE
ANIMATION AND THE LAST MICROWAVE SSMIS DATA OF 1337Z. LA DISYMETRIE
DE SYSTEME DUE EN PARTIE A LA PROXIMITE DES COTES MALGACHES DEVRAIENT
DIMINUER PROGRESSIVEMENT.


LE SYSTEME SE DEPLACE ACTUELLEMENT GLOBALEMENT VERS L'OUEST L'EFFET
DU FLUX DIRECTEUR DE BASSE ET MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE INDUIT PAR LA
CELLULE DE HAUTES PRESSIONS PRA SENTES SUR LA SUD DU CANAL.
CETTE TRAJECTOIRE LE DIRIGE VERS LES COTES MOZAMBICAINES QU'ELLE
ATTEINDRA LUNDI EN FIN DE MATINEE.
LA DEPRESSION SUR TERRE DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE VERS L'OUEST PUIS L'OUEST
SUD-OUEST, A L'INTERIEUR DES TERRES DU MOZAMBIQUE. PUIS LE  SUD DU
MALAWI.
LA PREVISION CMRS EST BASEE SUR UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES MEILLEURS
GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES, DONT LA DISPERSION EST FAIBLE PAR RAPPORT AUX
RESEAUX PRECEDENTS, INDUISANT UNE ASSEZ BONNE CONFIANCE SUR LA
TRAJECTOIRE MENANT AU MOZAMBIQUE.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM HAS FOUND MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FOR ITS DEVELOPMENT:
 A STRONG OCEANIC POTENTIAL IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CHANNEL
COMBINED WITH A GOOD CONVERGENCE OF LOW LAYERS BETWEEN THE MONSOON
FLOW IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CHANNEL AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW RISING
IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CHANNEL.
IN A HUMID TROPOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT, WITH A GOOD ALTITUDE DIVERGENCE
AND AN EQUATORIAL EVACUATION CHANNEL, THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
 TO DEEPEN QUITE RAPIDLY.
IT IS ENVISAGED A RELATIVELY FAST DEVELOPMENT TO REACH THE STAGE OF
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM. THE STAGE OF STRONG TROPICAL STORM JUST
BEFORE LANDING ON THE MOZAMBICAN COAST IS NOT EXCLUDED, EVEN IF THIS
SCENARIO IS LESS SUPPORTED BY THE LAST GUIDANCE.
ONCE ON LAND, THE PROGRESSIVE WEAKENING OF THE WINDS OF THE SYSTEM,
WILL HOWEVER LEAVE SUSTAINED NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ALONG THE
MOZAMBICAN COAST UNTIL TUESDAY QUITE FAR FROM THE CENTER.

EXPECTED CONSEQUENCES ON INHABITED LANDS :
- MADAGASCAR : HEAVY RAINS ALREADY PRESENT OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
REGIONS OF THE ISLAND, WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN COASTAL REGIONS. STRONG GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WEST
BETWEEN MAHAJANGA AND MAINTIRANO UNTIL TOMORROW IN THE WAKE OF THE
SYSTEM.
- MOZAMBIQUE (AND NEIGHBORING COUNTRIES INLAND): COASTAL GUSTS OF
MORE THAN 100 KM/H POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY WHEN THE SYSTEM WILL LAND BETWEEN QUELIMANE AND MOZAMBIQUE
ISLAND. HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE NORTH OF BEIRA AT FIRST THEN FURTHER
INLAND TO THE SOUTH OF MALAWI OVERFLOWING TO CENTRAL MOZAMBIQUE.=

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