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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220123211141.AFFB31C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sun, 23 Jan 2022 21:11:41 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 232111
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Jan 23 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 

off the coast of Costa Rica near 08N78W to 09N95W to 05N95W.
Segments of the ITCZ extend from near 05N95W to a 1013 mb low 
near 11N114W, from 09N130W to beyond 08.5N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 10N to 13N between 110W and 
113W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details 
on the Gale Warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

A pair of recent scatterometer satellite passes indicated gap
winds into the Gulf of Tehuantepec are just below gale force, so
the gale warning has ended. The winds are diminishing as high
pressure north of the area over the Gulf of Mexico weakens and
shifts eastward. Near-gale force winds may persist into the
evening, with fresh to strong winds expected through early Mon. 

Outside of the gap wind plume in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, recent
scatterometer satellite data shows gentle to moderate winds,
except for a small area of fresh NW winds over the far northern
Gulf of California, north of 30N. Concurrent altimeter passes
indicate generally 3 to 5 ft seas. Divergence aloft on the east
side of an upper trough west of the Revillagigedo Islands is
supporting a few showers and thunderstorms off Jalisco beyond 
150 nm. 

For the forecast, large NW swell will enter the waters 
off Baja California Mon and Mon night, reaching as far south as 
Cabo San Lazaro by late Tue. Looking ahead, gap winds to gale 
force are possible over the Gulf of Tehuantepec by Fri night as a
cold front moves across the western Gulf of Mexico into southern
Mexico. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Strong high pressure over the western Atlantic extending to the 
northern Caribbean continues to support a tight pressure gradient
enhancing fresh to strong NE to E gap winds across the Papagayo 
region with seas to 8 ft. Light to gentle variable winds with 
seas to 6 ft are elsewhere, except for moderate SW winds off the 
coast of Colombia and Ecuador. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will pulse 
across the Papagayo region through Mon with seas building to 8 
ft. Winds will pulse moderate to fresh across the Gulf of Panama 
through early next week. Remainder of area, winds should remain 
tranquil for the next several days. Large NW to N swell from the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec will impact the Guatemala and El Salvador 
offshore waters through tonight. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

1008 mb low pressure is centered west of the area near 20N145W, 
associated with a persistent and broad mid to upper level trough
over the region. This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh 
winds from 20N to 25N west of 130W. Numerous moderate showers and
thunderstorms are evident in this area as well. NW swell with 
combined wave heights of 8 to 13 ft are noted north of 12N and 
west of 130W. The broad mid to upper level trough is supporting 
1013 mb low near 11N114W, along with a few showers and 
thunderstorms within 90 nm east of the low. A recent altimeter 
satellite pass indicated seas were reaching 8 ft in this area, 
likely due to locally strong gusts related to the thunderstorm 
activity. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and mostly 4 to 6 
ft seas are noted. East of 110W, combined seas are 5 to 7 ft, in 
a mix of NE to E swell originating from the gap wind events over 
Tehuantepec and Papagayo, mixing with longer period NW and SE 
swell.

For the forecast, the frontal boundary will stall W of the area.
Large swell will continue moving E across the NW portion of the 
basin, with seas ranging between 8-11 ft during the next few 
days. The surface trough in the vicinity of 120W will prevail 
across the area over the next few days with convection. Gentle to
moderate winds will prevail across the basin through the end of 
the week. 

$$
Christensen


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