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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western And South 
Message-ID: <20220124000245.D8C9E1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Mon, 24 Jan 2022 00:02:45 +0000
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ABPW10 PGTW 240100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR/HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/240100Z-240600ZJAN2022//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.4N
129.6E, APPROXIMATELY 246NM NORTHEAST OF THE DAVAO, PHILIPPINES.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 232146Z SSMIS
91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DISPLAY SOME ORGANIZED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION(LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES OVERALL FAVORABLE CONDITIONS DEFINED BY MODERATE (15-20
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, BEING OFFSET BY FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW
AND WARM (27-28C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE WESTWARD TRACK OF INVEST 91W AND DESPITE
THE OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT LIMITED TIME OVER WATER BEFORE
MAKING LANDFALL OVER MINDANAO MEANS THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH WARNING CRITERIA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B(1) TO LOW.//
NNNN


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