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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The 
Message-ID: <20220124002911.3BE4D1C0087@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Mon, 24 Jan 2022 00:29:11 +0000
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TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 240030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR/HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
INDIAN/OCEAN/240030Z-241800ZJAN2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/231351ZJAN2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 23JAN22 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 15.5S 44.2E, APPROXIMATELY 212 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NACALA,
MOZAMBIQUE, AND HAD TRACKED WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35
KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 231500) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.2S 89.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.6S 89.4E, APPROXIMATELY 460NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A STRONG BAND OF FLARING CONVECTION
WRAPPING FROM THE NORTH INTO A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC). ANALYSIS INDICATES THERE IS A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) TO THE NORTH OF 96S AND MODERATE TO WEAK (10-15 KNOTS) VWS TO
THE SOUTH. THE STRONG VWS IS BEING OFFSET BY FAIR RADIAL OUTFLOW,
DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD
TRACK WITH GFS PREDICTING MORE AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
36-48 HOURS AS 96S MOVES INTO MORE FAVORABLE VWS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3.JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO
MEDIUM.//
NNNN


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