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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
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Date: Mon, 24 Jan 2022 03:46:18 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 240345
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon Jan 24 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0330 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from low pressure over Colombia to
09N79W to 09N84W to 05N94W, where latest scatterometer data 
indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to 07N108W, where it 
pauses. Low pressure of 1013 mb is near 11N114W. A trough 
extends from the low to 09N118W to 09N124W. Another ITCZ segment 
extends from 09N124W to 10N133W and to beyond 09N140W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 10N to 17N between 130W and 
140W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details 
on the going Gale Warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

Latest scatterometer data shows fresh to strong north to 
northeast gap winds into the Gulf of Tehuantepec. These winds 
will diminish to mainly fresh speeds Mon morning as high pressure
north of the area over the Gulf of Mexico weakens and shifts 
eastward.

Outside of the gap wind plume in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, the 
latest scatterometer satellite data shows gentle to moderate 
winds, except for moderate to fresh northwest over the central
and southern Gulf of California, and light to gentle northwest
to north winds over the northern Gulf of California. Latest 
altimeter data indicates seas of 4-6 ft due to a northwest 
swell. Seas are 2-4 ft in the Gulf of California.

Abundant atmospheric moisture is noted west of central Mexico 
and southern Baja California due to n upper-level trough that is 
near 120W, Within this area of moisture there are patches of rain
along with scattered showers. This activity is spreading east- 
northeast to inland the western part of central Mexico and over 
southern Baja California.

For the forecast, large northwest swell will enter the waters 
off Baja California Mon and Mon night, reaching as far south as 
Cabo San Lazaro by late Tue. Looking ahead, gap winds reaching
to gale force are possible over the Gulf of Tehuantepec by Fri 
night as a cold front moves across the western Gulf of Mexico 
into southern Mexico. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Strong high pressure over the western Atlantic extending to the 
northern Caribbean continues to support a tight pressure gradient
enhancing fresh to strong northeast to east gap winds across the
Papagayo region with seas to 8 ft. Light to gentle variable 
winds with seas to 6 ft are elsewhere, except for moderate
southwest winds off the coast of Colombia and Ecuador. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong northeast to east gap winds 
will pulse across the Papagayo region through Mon, with seas 
building to 8 ft. These winds will then be at fresh speeds
afterwards through the rest of the week. Winds will pulse 
moderate to fresh across the Gulf of Panama through the 
next few days. Over the remainder of area winds should remain 
tranquil for the next several days. Large northwest to north 
swell from the Gulf of Tehuantepec will impact the Guatemala and 
El Salvador offshore waters through tonight. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

A 1008 mb low pressure system is centered west of the area near 
19N145W. This feature is associated with a persistent and broad 
mid to upper-level trough over the region and a rather vigorous
large mid to upper-level low that is noted on water vapor 
imagery west of the area near 16N143W. This pattern is supporting
moderate to fresh winds from 20N to 25N west of 130W. A large 
area of moderate rain, with embedded numerous showers and 
possible thunderstorms exists from 10N to 20N between 130W-140W. 
Northwest swell producing combined wave heights of 8-11 ft is 
over the area north of 12N and west of about 130W. The broad mid 
to upper-level trough is supporting a 1013 mb low near 11N114W. 
An area of scattered moderate convection is present to the east 
of this low from 12N to 17N between 106W-109W. Seas in this area 
are in the range of 6-8 ft, likely due to earlier locally strong 
wind gusts from showers and thunderstorms. Elsewhere, gentle to 
moderate winds and mostly 4-6 ft seas are noted. East of 110W, 
combined seas are 5-7 ft due to a mix of northeast east swell 
originating from the gap-wind events over the Tehuantepec and 
Papagayo regions that is mixing with longer period northwest and 
southeast swell.

For the forecast, large swell will continue to propagate 
eastward across the northwest part of the basin, with seas 
ranging between 8-11 ft during the next few days. The surface 
trough in the vicinity of 120W will prevail across the area over 
the next few days with convection. A stationary front that
reaches to 30N140W will gradually weaken and dissipate through 
Mon. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the basin 
through the end of the week.

$$
Aguirre


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