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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Moderate Tropical Storm 1 (ana) 
Message-ID: <20220124070111.575CD1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Mon, 24 Jan 2022 07:01:11 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 240649
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/1/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 1 (ANA)

2.A POSITION 2022/01/24 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.5 S / 40.8 E
(SIXTEEN    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 14 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 61 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 335 SW: 315 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/01/24 18 UTC: 16.0 S / 38.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 400 SW: 345 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 240 SW: 185 NW: 0

24H: 2022/01/25 06 UTC: 16.2 S / 35.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 415 SW: 0 NW: 0

36H: 2022/01/25 18 UTC: 16.2 S / 33.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

48H: 2022/01/26 06 UTC: 16.3 S / 31.1 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

60H: 2022/01/26 18 UTC: 16.7 S / 29.2 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

72H: 2022/01/27 06 UTC: 17.3 S / 28.4 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT,
DISSIPATING

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0+

THE SYSTEM STILL SHOWS SIGNS OF INTENSIFICATION OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS
WITH THE FORMATION OF A BANDING EYE ON THE VERY LAST IMAGES. THE
PRESENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK ESTIMATES (30-40 KT 10-MIN) AND THE STRONGER ADT AND AIDT
ESTIMATES (50 KT 10-MIN), AT 45 KT (UPPER STAGE OF THE MODERATE
STORM).

THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARDS THE WEST SOUTH-WEST UNDER THE
EFFECT OF THE LOW AND MEDIUM TROPOSPHERE STEERING FLOW INDUCED BY THE
HIGH PRESSURE CELL PRESENT ON THE SOUTH OF THE CHANNEL, AND SHOULD
STRAIGHTEN UP SLIGHTLY TOWARDS THE WEST UNDER THE EFFECT OF A HIGH
PRESSURE PUSH TO THE SOUTH. THIS TRAJECTORY DIRECTS IT TOWARDS THE
MOZAMBICAN COASTS WHICH IT WILL REACH IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN CONTINUE IN A GENERAL WESTERLY DIRECTION
INLAND FROM MOZAMBIQUE, THEN SOUTH OF MALAWI LATE NEXT NIGHT.
THE CMRS FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE BEST AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE, WHOSE DISPERSION IS LOW COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS NETWORKS,
INDUCING A FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE ON THE TRACK.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM HAS FOUND MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FOR ITS DEVELOPMENT:
 A STRONG OCEANIC POTENTIAL IN THE NORTH OF THE CHANNEL COMBINED WITH
A GOOD CONVERGENCE OF LOW LAYERS BETWEEN THE MONSOON FLOW IN THE
NORTH OF THE CHANNEL AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW RISING IN THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE CHANNEL.
IN A HUMID TROPOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT, WITH A GOOD ALTITUDE DIVERGENCE
AND AN EQUATORIAL EVACUATION CHANNEL, THIS SYSTEM COULD REACH THE
STAGE OF A STRONG TROPICAL STORM BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL.

ONCE ON LAND, THE PROGRESSIVE WEAKENING OF THE WINDS OF THE SYSTEM,
WILL HOWEVER LEAVE SUSTAINED NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ALONG THE
MOZAMBICAN COAST UNTIL TUESDAY QUITE FAR FROM THE CENTER.

EXPECTED CONSEQUENCES ON THE INHABITED LANDS :
- MADAGASCAR : THE WEATHER IS SLOWLY IMPROVING BUT ADDITIONAL RAINS
OF THE ORDER OF 50 TO 100 MM ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE
NORTH-WESTERN REGION OF MADAGASCAR BETWEEN MAJUNGA AND CAP
SAINT-ANDRE. WINDS STILL QUITE STRONG WITH GUSTS TO 80-90 KM/H IN THE
CAPE SAINT-ANDRE AREA THIS MORNING, GRADUALLY DECREASING TODAY, MORE
FRANKLY NEXT NIGHT.

- MOZAMBIQUE (AND NEIGHBORING COUNTRIES INLAND):
WINDS: COASTAL GUSTS IN THE ORDER OF 100 TO 130 KM/H POSSIBLE IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS IN THE VICINITY OF THE LANDING ZONE (TOWARDS THE CITY
OF ANGOCHE). TONIGHT, STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 80-100 KM/H, WILL
REACH THE COASTAL AREA BETWEEN QUELIMANE AND BEIRA.

RAINS: INTENSE RAINS (UP TO 100 MM IN A FEW HOURS) IN THE NEXT HOURS
NEAR THE IMPACT AREA. ONCE INLAND, FREQUENT ACCUMULATIONS OF 100/150
MM IN 24H ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE TRAJECTORY DURING THE NEXT 24-30H
WITH LOCALLY 200 MM POSSIBLE ON THE PLATEAUS. THESE HEAVY RAINS WILL
REACH A LARGE SOUTHERN HALF OF MALAWI DURING THE NIGHT.

SEA: AN ABNORMAL SEA RISE OF A FEW CENTIMETERS (10 CM) IS EXPECTED
NEAR THE IMPACT AREA. A SURGE OF A FEW TENS OF CENTIMETERS IS
POSSIBLE NEXT NIGHT WELL SOUTH OF THE IMPACT AREA TOWARDS QUELIMANE
AND BEIRA WITH A STRONG AND PERSISTENT INFLOW WIND DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.=

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