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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
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Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220124094552.3192B1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Mon, 24 Jan 2022 09:45:51 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 240945
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Jan 24 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0930 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from low pressure over Colombia to 
08N79W to 09N85W to 07N92W to 06N97W, where overnight 
scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to 
07N106W, where it pauses. Low pressure of 1013 mb is near 
10N115W. A trough extends from the low to 13N113W, and another 
one extends from the low to 08N118W and to 08N122W. Another ITCZ 
segment extends from 08N122W to 09N128W to 10N132W and to beyond 
09N140W. No significant convection is noted.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details 
on the ongoing Gale Warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

Overnight scatterometer satellite data shows fresh to strong 
north to northeast gap winds into the Gulf of Tehuantepec. These 
winds will diminish to mainly fresh speeds this morning as high 
pressure north of the area over the Gulf of Mexico weakens and 
shifts eastward.

Outside of the gap wind plume in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, the 
overnight scatterometer satellite data shows gentle to moderate 
winds, except for moderate to fresh northwest over the central 
and southern Gulf of California. Locally strong winds are 
possible over the southern Gulf of California per a recent ship 
observation from there. Light to gentle northwest to north winds 
are over the northern Gulf of California. Latest altimeter data 
indicates seas of 4-6 ft due to a northwest swell. Seas are 2-4 
ft in the Gulf of California.

Abundant atmospheric moisture is noted west of central Mexico 
and southern Baja California due to an upper-level trough that 
is near 120W, Within this area of moisture there are patches of 
rain along with scattered showers. This activity is spreading 
east-northeastward to inland the western part of central Mexico 
and over southern Baja California. Satellite imagery over recent 
hours indicate that this this moisture is decreasing with time.

For the forecast, large northwest swell will enter the waters 
off Baja California Mon and Mon night, reaching as far south as 
Cabo San Lazaro by late Tue. Looking ahead, gap winds reaching
to gale force are possible over the Gulf of Tehuantepec by Fri 
night as a cold front moves across the western Gulf of Mexico 
into southern Mexico. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Strong high pressure over the western Atlantic extending to the 
northern Caribbean continues to support a tight pressure gradient
enhancing fresh to strong northeast to east gap winds across the
Papagayo region with seas to 8 ft. Light to gentle variable 
winds with seas to 6 ft are elsewhere, except for moderate
southwest winds off the coast of Colombia and Ecuador. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong northeast to east gap winds 
will pulse across the Papagayo region through late tonight, with 
seas building to 8 ft. These winds will then be at fresh speeds 
afterwards through the rest of the week. Winds will pulse 
moderate to fresh across the Gulf of Panama through the next few 
days. Over the remainder of area winds should remain tranquil 
for the next several days. Decaying northwest to north swell 
from the Gulf of Tehuantepec will impact the Guatemala and El 
Salvador offshore waters today. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

A 1009 mb low pressure system, a gale center, is located west of 
the area near 17N145W. This feature is associated with a 
persistent and broad mid to upper-level trough over the region 
and a rather vigorous large mid to upper-level low that is noted 
on water vapor imagery west of the area near 17N143W. This 
pattern is supporting moderate to fresh winds from 20N to 25N 
west of 130W. A large area of moderate rain, with embedded 
numerous showers and possible thunderstorms exists from 13N to 
20N between 126W-136W and from 20N to 21N west of 136W. 
Northwest swell producing combined wave heights of 8-10 ft is 
over the area north of 10N and west of about 127W. The broad mid 
to upper-level trough is supporting a 1013 mb low near 10N115W. 
A decreasing area of scattered moderate convection is noted to 
the east of this low from 13N to 16N between 105W-107W. Seas in 
this area peaking up to about 7 ft, likely due to earlier 
locally strong wind gusts from showers and thunderstorms. 
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and mostly 4-6 ft seas are 
noted. East of 110W, combined seas are 5-7 ft due to a mix of 
northeast east swell originating from the gap-wind events over 
the Tehuantepec and Papagayo regions that is mixing with longer 
period northwest and southeast swell.

For the forecast, large swell will continue to propagate 
eastward across the northwest part of the basin, with seas 
ranging between 8-11 ft during the next few days. The surface 
trough in the vicinity of 120W will prevail across the area over 
the next few days with convection. A dissipating stationary 
front reaches the far northwest part of the area near 30N140W.
Gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the basin through 
the end of the week.

$$
Aguirre


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