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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: Subj/tropical Cyclone 07s (ana) Warning Nr 003// 
Message-ID: <20220124135257.A86921C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Mon, 24 Jan 2022 13:52:57 +0000
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WTXS31 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (ANA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (ANA) WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   241200Z --- NEAR 16.3S 38.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S 38.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   250000Z --- 16.3S 36.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   251200Z --- 16.5S 33.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 38.1E.
24JAN22. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (ANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 153
NM SOUTHWEST OF NACALA, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 07S MADE LANDFALL AT APPROXIMATELY
240800Z NEAR ANGOCHE, MOZAMBIQUE. SURFACE WINDS AT ANGOCHE SWITCHED
FROM SOUTHERLY AT 20 KNOTS AT 240800Z TO NORTHEASTERLY AT 12 KNOTS
AT 240900Z AS THE SYSTEM CENTER TRACKED INLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL-ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 241137Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO SHOWS
CURVED BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND A DEFINED LLCC, WHICH
SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. BASED ON THE
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED
CONSERVATIVELY AT 45 KNOTS. TC 07S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
WESTWARD AND WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 24. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
NNNN


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