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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian 
Message-ID: <20220124222611.164701C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Mon, 24 Jan 2022 22:26:11 +0000
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ABIO10 PGTW 242200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/REISSUED/242200Z-251800ZJAN2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/241351ZJAN2022//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/242121ZJAN2022//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL
/CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96S).//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 24JAN22 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (ANA) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 16.3S 38.8E, APPROXIMATELY 153 NM SOUTHWEST OF NACALA,
MOZAMBIQUE, AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 241500) FOR THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.8S 89.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4S 89.8E, APPROXIMATELY 424
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 241910Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT
CONSOLIDATING CONVECTION OVER AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLC). A BULLSEYE 241603Z METOP-B IMAGE REVEALS ASYMMETRIC INCREASED
WINDS OF 30KTS WITHIN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF 96S. HOWEVER, 96S
REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE WITH
TROUGH LIKE FEATURES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THERE IS A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) TO THE NORTH OF 96S AND MODERATE TO WEAK (10-15
KNOTS) VWS TO THE SOUTH. THE STRONG VWS IS BEING OFFSET BY FAIR
RADIAL OUTFLOW, DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT INVEST 96S WILL
CONSOLIDATE AND STRENGTHEN AS IT PROPAGATES SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF B (WTXS21 PGTW
242130) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO HIGH.
NNNN


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