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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220125040758.3E6001C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Tue, 25 Jan 2022 04:07:57 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 250403
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Jan 25 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0345 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from a 1007 mb low pressure over 
Colombia southwest to 03N78W and to 04N83W. The monsoon trough 
axis extends from 06N82W to 07N93W to 06N102W to low pressure 
near 10N116W 1010 mb and to 08N123W. The ITCZ extends from 
08N123W to 06N127W to 08N133W and to 08N140W. A trough 
extends from the 1010 mb north-northeast to 15N115W. Scattered 
moderate convection is within 30 nm north of the monsoon trough 
between 105W-108W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Light and variable winds are over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Little
change is expected with these winds through Tue night, then 
strong north winds will develop over the Gulf early in Wed. 

Latest scatterometer satellite data shows generally gentle to 
moderate winds South of Puerto Vallarta to the offshore waters
that border Mexico and Guatemala, with the exception of moderate
to fresh north to northwest winds over the central and southern 
Gulf of Baja California. Light to moderate winds are off of Baja
California south of Bahia Tortugas. Seas are 3-4 ft in the
central Gulf of California and 2-3 ft elsewhere in the Gulf.
Seas are 4-6 ft offshore Baja California due to a west to 
northwest swell, except for higher seas of 6-8 ft north of 
Cabo San Lazaro due to a west to northwest swell.

An area of scattered showers and thunderstorms is noted well
offshore to the southwest of Manzanillo from 14N to 17N between 
103W-109W. This activity is being sustained by an upper-level 
trough that has a base near 110W. This activity is has an
eastward motion, but is less in coverage than during the past 
24 hours.

For the forecast, northwest swell over the waters off Baja 
California will propagate as far south as Cabo San Lazaro by Tue 
night. Looking ahead, gap winds to gale-force speeds are 
possible over the Gulf of Tehuantepec beginning Fri night as a 
strong cold front moves across the western Gulf of Mexico into 
southern Mexico. Marine conditions will deteriorate in the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec beginning Fri night and through the upcoming 
weekend.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong east gap winds are across the Papagayo, while 
light to gentle variable winds along with seas to 6 ft are 
elsewhere, except for moderate to fresh winds in the Gulf 
of Panama and moderate south to southwest winds in the vicinity
of Ecuador. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong northeast to east gap winds 
will pulse across the Papagayo region through early Tue, then 
diminish to mainly fresh speeds through Sat and begin to pulse 
back up to strong speeds Sat night. Winds will pulse moderate to 
fresh across the Gulf of Panama during the next few days. Over 
the remainder of area, winds should remain tranquil for the next 
several days. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

High pressure of 1022 mb is analyzed north of the area near
33N129W, with a ridge extending southeastward to 24N116W and 
to just north of the Revillagigedo Islands. A trough is analyzed
from near 30N131W to 27N130W, another trough extends from 
near 15N131W to 10N129W and another one extends from 20N139W to
16N140W. A trough that is well to the northwest of the area 
extends south-southwest to 30N140W and to west of the area to 
near 27N145W. Satellite water-vapor imagery depicts a large 
and well-pronounced mid to upper-level low centered just west 
of the area near 18N141W. Divergence aloft on the east side 
of this system is supporting a large area of moderate rain, with
embedded numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms from 10N 
to about 22N and between 128W-140W. This activity is helping to 
maintain an area of fresh east winds that covers the waters from 
18N-23N between 130W-140W.

Northwest swell is producing combined wave heights of 8-10 ft
over the waters from 05N to 30N and between 122W-140W. Wave 
heights are 5-6 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, the west to northwest will decrease in coverage 
over the next 24-36 hours while it subsides. Gentle to generally
moderate winds will continue across the basin through the end of
the week.

$$
Aguirre


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