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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western And 
Message-ID: <20220125060944.A8CA21C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Tue, 25 Jan 2022 06:09:44 +0000
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Reply-To: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
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ABPW10 PGTW 250600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/250600Z-260600ZJAN2022//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.4N 129.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.2N 124.2E, APPROXIMATELY 396
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO PRINCESA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 250450Z GMI 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS DISORGANIZED CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES OVERALL FAVORABLE CONDITIONS DEFINED BY LOW TO
MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND FAIR POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE WESTWARD
TRACK OF INVEST 91W AND DESPITE THE OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT,
LIMITED TIME OVER WATER AND MAKING LANDFALL OVER MINDANAO INDICATES
THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH WARNING CRITERIA IN THE NEXT 48
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN


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