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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Overland Depression 1 (ana) 
Message-ID: <20220125061513.BC3271C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Tue, 25 Jan 2022 06:15:13 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 250611
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/1/20212022
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 1 (ANA)

2.A POSITION 2022/01/25 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.0 S / 34.3 E
(SEVENTEEN    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY FOUR    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 993 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 370 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/01/25 18 UTC: 16.6 S / 32.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

24H: 2022/01/26 06 UTC: 16.3 S / 30.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

36H: 2022/01/26 18 UTC: 17.0 S / 27.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

48H: 2022/01/27 06 UTC: 17.5 S / 27.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

60H: 2022/01/27 18 UTC: 17.7 S / 26.1 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

72H: 2022/01/28 06 UTC: 17.5 S / 25.3 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS, THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN
MAINTAINED AROUND THE CENTER EXTENDING TO ABOUT 500KM BUT ALSO AT THE
LEVEL OF A PERIPHERAL BAND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER STILL TOUCHING THE
COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE TOWARDS BEIRA. THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES
AS WELL AS THE SSMI SWATH OF 0158UTC ALLOW A LOCATION A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH THAN THE ONE MADE BEFORE. THIS LEAVES A LOCATION OF ANA IN THE
ZAMBEZI VALLEY. THE EXTENSION OF THE WINDS IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT STILL LEAVES WIND VALUES CLOSE TO 30KT ON THE MOZAMBICAN
COASTS. THE WIND WILL PROGRESSIVELY WEAKEN.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK, DURING THE NEXT 24-36H, THE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE A FAST MOTION WESTWARD ON THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST FACADE
OF THE LOW TO MID LEVELS HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS. ON THIS TRACK THE SYSTEM
WILL RAPIDLY CROSS SOUTHERN MALAWI THIS MORNING AND THEN REACH
NORTHERN ZIMBABWE NEXT NIGHT.
FROM THURSDAY, WHILE A BAROMETRIC COL IS BUILDING IN THE SOUTH, THE
RESIDUAL DEPRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOW DOWN NEAR SOUTH ZAMBIA.
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL SLOWLY DISAPPEAR OVER THE WEEK-END ON
THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF ZAMBIA.

EXPECTED CONSEQUENCES ON INHABITED LANDS :

- WINDS: STRONG WINDS GUSTING TO 80-100 KM/H CONTINUED OVER THE
COASTAL AREAS FROM BEIRA TO QUELIMANE UNTIL LATE MORNING BEFORE
WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY

RAINS: 100/150 MM RAINFALLS IN 24H ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE TRACK
DURING THE NEXT 24H WITH LOCALLY 200 MM POSSIBLE OEVR THE
NORTH-WESTERN PARTS OF MOZAMBIQUE. ON THE COAST, THE RAINFALLS SHOULD
WEAKEN PROGRESSIVELY ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE PACKAGES MAY STILL CONCERN
THE COAST. TODAY, HEAVY RAINFALLS WILL REACH NORTHERN ZIMBABWE THEN
SOUTHERN ZAMBIA FROM THURSDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE RESIDUAL LOW. OVER ZAMBIA
THESE PRECIPITATIONS MAY LAST OVER THE WEEK-END.=

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