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From: <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: RSMC La Reunion Tropical Cyclone Analysis
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Message-ID: <20220125115033.868791C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Tue, 25 Jan 2022 11:50:33 +0000
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348 
AWIO20 FMEE 251148

TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN

DATE: 2022/01/25 AT 1200 UTC

PART 1:

WARNING SUMMARY:


Warning WTIO24 and WTIO30 FMEE 015/01 issued at 06UTC on overland depression ANA.

Next warning WTIO30 issued at 12UTC.


PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:


The trans-equatorial monsoon flow is present over the entire width of the basin and feeds the Monsoon trough (TM) which undulates around 10S between 60 and 90oE. In this trough several areas of vorticity are under surveillance: one already present over the eastern part of the basin and a second one that could form within a few days.

Overland depression ANA:
Position at 09 UTC: 16.9oS / 33.2oE (on land)
Movement: West at 15 kt
Average wind over 10 minutes: 30 kt
Estimated MSLP : 995 hPa

For more information, refer to the technical bulletin WTIO30 which will be issued at 12UTC.

Over the eastern part of the basin :

A disturbed area is currently clearly visible on satellite images around 11oS and 90oE. The ASCAT HY-2C passes of 2h30 this morning and the ASCAT-B of 16h30 yesterday allow to distinguish a closed circulation with maximum winds on the equatorial side around 30kt. This low level vortex is currently benefiting from good environmental conditions for its development: good convergence of low level flows, good altitude divergence on its western semicircle. However, this potential is counterbalanced by a moderate East-Southeast shear aloft, at the northern edge of the upper ridge. It will oscillate at the edge of our area of responsibility before entering it more clearly tomorrow.

Over the center of the basin :

By Thursday, a second low pressure area centered at 10oS/70oE will encounter conducive conditions for its development. In a humid air mass, with an acceleration on its equatorial side, this minimum could intensify and merge with the previous disturbed area.

Thus, over the next few days, the evolution of these two areas seems closely linked. The assembly models now seem to favour the hypothesis of cyclogenesis of the central zone to the detriment of that over the east of the basin.

The risk of a tropical storm forming in the east of the basin is low on Wednesday and becomes moderate from Thursday.


NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of the genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin and within the next five days:

Very low:       less than 10%              Moderate:        30% to 60%        Very high:      over 90%
Low:             10% to 30%                  High:               60% to 90%

The Southwestern Indian Ocean basin extends from the equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.

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