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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Overland Depression 1 (ana) 
Message-ID: <20220125121713.4DAAA1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Tue, 25 Jan 2022 12:17:13 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 251209
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/1/20212022
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 1 (ANA)

2.A POSITION 2022/01/25 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.4 S / 32.9 E
(SIXTEEN    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY TWO    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 15 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/01/26 00 UTC: 16.3 S / 30.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

24H: 2022/01/26 12 UTC: 16.9 S / 28.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

36H: 2022/01/27 00 UTC: 17.5 S / 27.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

48H: 2022/01/27 12 UTC: 17.7 S / 26.1 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

60H: 2022/01/28 00 UTC: 17.5 S / 25.2 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION


2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER IS DELICATE WITH BOTH VISIBLE AND
MICROWAVE IMAGES. DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS, THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
HAS WEAKENED BUT STILL PRESENTS A POTENTIAL OF PRECIPITATIONS ON A
LARGE AREA. THE WIND CONTINUES TO WEAKEN BUT THE PRECIPITATION
REMAINS PRESENT.

IN TERMS OF FORECASTING, LITTLE CHANGE IN DIRECTION BUT A SLIGHTLY
FASTER TRACK THAN PREVIOUSLY PREDICTED FOR THE SHORT TERM. THE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE A FAST MOTION WESTWARD ON THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST FACADE
OF THE LOW TO MID LEVELS HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS. ON THIS TRACK THE SYSTEM
WILL RAPIDLY REACH NORTHERN ZIMBABWE DURING THE DAY.
FROM THURSDAY, WHILE A BAROMETRIC COL IS BUILDING IN THE SOUTH, THE
RESIDUAL DEPRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOW DOWN NEAR SOUTH ZAMBIA.
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL SLOWLY DISAPPEAR OVER THE WEEK-END ON
THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF ZAMBIA.

EXPECTED CONSEQUENCES ON INHABITED LANDS :

- WINDS: WINDS ARE WEAKENING BUT GUSTS APPROACHING 80KM/H ON THE
COAST ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING.

- RAINS: 100/150 MM RAINFALLS IN 24H ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE TRACK
DURING THE NEXT 24H WITH LOCALLY 200 MM POSSIBLE OEVR THE
NORTH-WESTERN PARTS OF MOZAMBIQUE. ON THE COAST, THE RAINFALLS SHOULD
WEAKEN PROGRESSIVELY ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE PACKAGES MAY STILL CONCERN
THE COAST. TODAY, HEAVY RAINFALLS WILL REACH NORTHERN ZIMBABWE THEN
SOUTHERN ZAMBIA FROM THURSDAY. DURING THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
RESIDUAL MINIMUM, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE POSSIBLE,
WITH 24-HOUR AMOUNTS OF THE ORDER OF HALF THE MONTHLY AVERAGES FOR
JANUARY OVER THESE REGIONS. OVER ZAMBIA THESE PRECIPITATIONS MAY LAST
OVER THE WEEK-END.

THIS WARNING IS THE LAST ABOUT THIS SYSTEM.=

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