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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220125154826.2D64F1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Tue, 25 Jan 2022 15:48:26 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 251548
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Jan 25 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from Colombia near 04N77W southwest to
01N80W. The monsoon trough axis extends from 07N87W to 06N92W to
09N104W to low pressure near 09N108W 1011 mb. A trough extends
from that low to another low pressure near 10N118W 1011 mb. The
trough continues from that low southwestward to 04N127W to
08N139W. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N to 06N between
77W and 80W and from 06N to 09N between 109W and 118W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Light and variable winds are over the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
Generally gentle to moderate winds are present south of Puerto 
Vallarta to the offshore waters that border Mexico and Guatemala.
Light to moderate winds are off of Baja California Sur. Seas are
1-3 ft in the Gulf of California. Seas are 6-8 ft offshore Baja 
California Norte and 5-7 ft offshore Baja California Sur due to a
west to northwest swell.

An area of scattered showers and thunderstorms is noted well
offshore, southwest of Manzanillo from 12N to 15N between 102W
and 108W. This activity is being sustained by weak divergence 
aloft. This activity is translating eastward.

For the forecast, moderate northwest swell over the waters off 
Baja California will propagate as far south as Cabo San Lazaro 
tonight before subsiding. Strong N winds are expected in the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec Wed through Thu. Then, gaps winds to gale-
force speeds are possible over the Gulf of Tehuantepec beginning 
Fri night as a strong cold front moves across the western Gulf of
Mexico into southern Mexico. Marine conditions will deteriorate 
in the Gulf of Tehuantepec beginning Fri night and through the 
upcoming weekend. Fresh to strong NW winds are possible in the 
Gulf of California Fri and Fri night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to locally strong east gap winds are across the Papagayo
region, while light to gentle variable winds along with seas to 
6 ft are elsewhere, except for moderate to fresh N winds in the 
Gulf of Panama. 

For the forecast, the fresh northeast to east gap winds across 
the Papagayo region will continue to pulse to strong at night
through Thu night. Then, fresh to strong winds will return Sat
night. Pulsing moderate to fresh N winds will continue in the
Gulf of Panama during the next few days. Over the remainder of 
area, winds should remain tranquil for the next several days. 
Large northwest swell from an upcoming Gulf of Tehuantepec gap- 
wind gale event will infiltrate the Guatemala and El Salvador 
offshore waters on Sat and Sat night building the seas there to 
around 10 to 13 ft.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

A ridge extends across the northern waters, with mainly light to
gentle winds north of 25N. A couple of surface troughs are noted
in the area from 11N to 21N between 129W and 140W. Satellite 
water-vapor imagery depicts a large area of mid to upper-level 
troughing north of 10N between 130W-140W. Divergence aloft on 
the east side of this system is supporting a large area of
scattered moderate isolated strong convection from 14N to 21N 
between 125W and 136W. This activity is helping to maintain an 
area of moderate to fresh east winds over the waters from 18N-
23N between 130W-140W.

Northwest swell is producing significant wave heights of 7-9 ft 
over the waters from 05N to 30N and between 120W-140W. Wave 
heights are 5-6 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, the west to northwest swell will decrease in 
coverage over the next 24-36 hours while it subsides. Gentle to 
generally moderate winds will continue across the basin through 
the end of the week.

$$
Hagen


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