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Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian 
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ABIO10 PGTW 251800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/251800Z-261800ZJAN2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/242121ZJAN2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.4S 89.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.2S 90.9E, APPROXIMATELY 352
NM WEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS CONSOLIDATING CONVECTION OVERHEAD OF AN OBSCURED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINAL
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY FAIR OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM
(29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, OFFSET BY HIGH (30-40KT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) TO THE NORTH AND MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30KT) VWS TO
THE SOUTH. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 96S WILL
CONSOLIDATE AS IT CONTINUES ON ITS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A


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