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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian Ocean 
Message-ID: <20220125213022.CFA511C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Tue, 25 Jan 2022 21:30:22 +0000
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Reply-To: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
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ABIO10 PGTW 252130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/252130Z-261800ZJAN2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/252121ZJAN2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.9S 90.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.2S 90.6E, APPROXIMATELY 374
NM WEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS CONSOLIDATING CONVECTION OVERHEAD OF AN OBSCURED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE
MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY FAIR OUTFLOW ALOFT
AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, OFFSET BY HIGH (30-40KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) TO THE NORTH AND MODERATE TO HIGH (20-
30KT) VWS TO THE SOUTH. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 96S
WILL CONSOLIDATE AS IT CONTINUES ON ITS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK
OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 242130) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: REISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT FOR 96S.//
NNNN


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