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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220126035227.35E1E1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Wed, 26 Jan 2022 03:52:27 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 260352
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Jan 26 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0330 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from low pressure of 1008 mb over
northern Colombia southwestward to 06N77W and to 04N80W. The 
monsoon trough axis extends from 07N82W to 06N93W to 08N102W 
to low pressure near 09N110W 1011 mb to another low pressure
near 09N120W 1010 mb and to 09N128W. The ITCZ continues from 
09N125W to 07N135W and to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is noted within 60 nm north of
the trough between 109W-111W, and within 30 nm south of the
trough between 115W-119W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Latest ASCAT wind data shows light to gentle winds across most of
the Mexico offshore waters, with moderate northwest to north 
winds observed offshore Cabo Corrientes and downstream from 
there to near 18N. Moderate west winds are noted near the coast 
of Oaxaca. Seas are 6-8 ft offshore Baja California due to west 
to northwest swell, 1-2 ft in the Gulf of California except in 
the southern section and and 5-7 ft elsewhere due to a west to 
northwest swell.

For the forecast, moderate northwest swell will continue west
of Baja California through tonight before subsiding. Strong 
north winds are expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec late tonight 
through Thu night. Then, gap winds to gale-force speeds are 
possible over the Gulf of Tehuantepec beginning Fri night as a 
strong cold front moves across the western Gulf of Mexico into 
southern Mexico. Marine conditions will deteriorate in the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec beginning Fri night and lasting through the 
upcoming weekend. Fresh to strong NW winds are likely in the Gulf
of California late Thu night through Fri night. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Latest scatterometer data passes show fresh northeast to east 
gap winds across the Papagayo region, while light to gentle 
variable winds along with seas of 4-6 ft are elsewhere, except 
for moderate to fresh north winds in the Gulf of Panama. 

For the forecast, the fresh northeast to east gap winds across 
the Papagayo region will pulse to strong Wed through Thu, then
again late Sat through Mon. Pulsing moderate to fresh N winds 
will continue in the Gulf of Panama through Thu night, then
return to the area Sat night. Over the remainder of area, winds 
should remain tranquil for the next several days. Large northwest
swell from an upcoming Gulf of Tehuantepec gap-wind gale event 
will infiltrate the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters on 
Sat and Sat night building the seas there to around 10 to 14 ft.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

A ridge extends across the northern waters, with mainly light to
gentle winds north of 25N. A surface trough extends from 20N135W
to 16N140W. Broad mid to upper-level troughing is present 
north of 10N between 130W-140W. Divergence aloft to the east of 
the trough is sustaining an area of scattered moderate to 
isolated strong convection located from 14N to 18N between 122W- 
125W, and area of moderate rain with embedded numerous showers 
and scattered thunderstorms from 15N to 22N between 128W-135W. 
Northwest swell is producing significant wave heights peaking at 
8 ft over the waters from 13N to 30N and between 119W-140W. Wave 
heights are 5-6 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, the west to northwest swell will decay by 
Thu afternoon. Gentle to moderate winds will continue across the
basin through Fri. Looking ahead, a surface trough is likely to 
amplify over the weekend, bringing fresh to strong winds and 
building seas in the vicinity of 10N-20N between 123W-134W.

$$
Aguirre


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